The NASCAR Best Bets Article has been on fire for the last 10 months. COTA was the biggest week yet. The “Featured Matchups” bets all busted (0-3), but that’s COTA. Road races aren’t much different than plate races, and that’s why the Best Bets article picked a long shot in Ross Chastain at +2500.
Let’s keep the wins coming by looking through the data while being cognizant of context. Trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400, which gets underway Sunday April 3 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Toyota Owners 400 Winner
Martin Truex Jr. +1000
This doesn’t make any sense at all. Larson and Elliott have better odds to win? Neither have ever won at Richmond, and neither are particularly good at Richmond. Elliott has gotten better, but this is Larson’s worst track. The DraftKings SportsBook did not do their homework this week. This is lazy. Larson is good everywhere, and typically slapping the shortest odds on him and moving on would be fine, but there is one track where this isn’t the case — Richmond.
Truex’s Richmond record stands in stark contrast. Not only is he the best driver in the Cup Series at Richmond, but he is one of the best ever at this short, flat track. Truex won last fall, despite serving what should have been a terminal pass-thru penalty to begin the race. He very well could have won the spring race, but an unscheduled pit stop in stage 3 knocked him out of contention. His Richmond stats are unbelievable — three wins and an average finish of second over his last six races. On top of that, Truex has been the best high-horsepower, short-track driver over the last six seasons.
Featured Matchup: Kyle Larson vs. Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. -110
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
Featured Matchup: Alex Bowman vs. Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch -125
When Busch talks about Bowman backing into wins, he’s referring to Bowman’s 2021 spring Richmond win. Bowman hung around the top 5 all day and won the race with a strong restart at the end. If leading laps matters — it doesn’t — Bowman backed into the win. If leading the last lap matters — it does — then Bowman deserved the win. In the fall race, Busch was on his way to the win, but he got nabbed for speeding on his final pit stop.
Both drivers and cars look good this season. Both pit crews are ranked near the top of the Series. It’s close but the edge goes to Busch because he is hungry for a win, and JGR had the four best cars at Richmond last fall.
Featured Matchup: Denny Hamlin vs. Joey Logano
Denny Hamlin -115
This is a terrific matchup. Hamlin and Logano battled in both Richmond races last season. Neither won at Richmond, but Hamlin was the runner-up in both races. Logano’s short-run speed couldn’t hang with Hamlin’s long-run car during the lengthy green-flag runs. There is a propensity for Richmond to turn into a lap turner. Short-run speed could be important in the new racing package, but after Phoenix, it appears few drivers are willing to push their cars anywhere near the edge. They will gladly turn laps if that means staying out of the wall.
Featured Matchup: Ross Chastain vs. Tyler Reddick
Ross Chastain -120
COTA doesn’t really matter, but it’s a testament to momentum. Chastain was running well heading into Austin, and he got the win. His confidence is at an all-time high, and it should be. His pit crew is the fastest in the Cup Series — this stat should not be overlooked — and the No. 1 Chevy is one of the fastest cars in the Series. This should not come as a surprise. Chastain’s car was fast at the high-horsepower, low-downforce tracks last season. He was a top-10 driver for most of the fall Richmond race. In comparison, Reddick rarely sniffs the top 10 at Richmond.
Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.