We have nine NBA games to choose from Monday. There are three games with a total of at least 230 on DraftKings Sportsbook: Denver at Charlotte (233.5), Atlanta at Indiana (236.5) and San Antonio at Houston (234). Miami is the biggest favorite at 12.5 points over Sacramento. There is one game with a spread of three points or lower — Oklahoma City -2 over Portland.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite NBA wagers for this slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Over the last 10 games, the Spurs and Rockets have been fourth and sixth in offensive pace. Interestingly, they have been 15th and 16th in defensive rating. For much of the season, the Rockets were the creme de la creme for fantasy as they were dead-last in defensive rating. There are a ton of trends that point to the under in this one, though. The Spurs have gone under in eight of the last 10 games. The Rockets have gone under in seven of the last 10 and in six of their most recent contests. The under has hit in five of the last six games when the Spurs have visited Houston.
The Pacers have not been a good team. Over the last 15 games, they’ve only won five and have been 5-10 ATS. They have been 27th in defensive rating over that span. One of those wins was against the red-hot Boston Celtics, though. Any time the Hawks are on the road, I look to fade them because they have covered ATS on the road at the worst rate in the league (30.6%). The eight points seem a little rich, especially since they are 20th in defensive rating themselves while Indiana has been a respectable 15th in offense over the last 15 games.
I’ve been taking the road teams lately, so it feels weird backing the home teams today. As Bruce Lee said, we must be like water. Over the last 10 games, both teams have been top 10 in offensive rating while being 22nd and 25th in defensive rating, so plenty of points should be scored in this one. Charlotte has covered at a 54.1% clip ATS at home and are 4-1 over the last five games with covers against the Jazz and Mavericks. These teams met back in late December with the Hornets prevailing 115-107 in Denver.
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