Both the Panthers and Canadiens rank in the top 10 in terms of the frequency of times they have hit the over this season. The Panthers’ 61.3% over percentage is third highest in the league and they are heading into this matchup with Montreal with a new addition on offense in Claude Giroux. Montreal’s offense has finally awoken of late as well, and that’s led to bigger game totals (and more overs hitting), with eight of the last 10 Canadiens games featuring seven or more goals combined. At plus-money, the over 6.5 looks very enticing today.
Edmonton Oilers vs. San Jose Sharks
Connor McDavid ($9,000) — Evander Kane ($6,200) — Kailer Yamamoto ($4,100)
The Oilers take on a San Jose Sharks team today who has lost seven of their last nine road games and allowed three or more goals in eight of those nine games. The Oilers’ first line has been hitting on all cylinders of late and comes in having scored seven goals and 17 points between them over their last three games.
Edmonton has mixed and matched their top lines a lot this season but lately, the trio of Kane, Yamamoto and McDavid has been glued together, and is seeing plenty of power-play time together as well. McDavid comes in having scored multiple points in six of his last seven games and he’s finally managed to bring out consistent scoring from third-year player Kailer Yamamoto, who has 10 points in his last 10 games and is still available at well under $5,000. Evander Kane has also played his best hockey of the season over the last couple of weeks and is in an obvious revenge spot against his former club.
Edmonton is involved in a dogfight for a playoff spot and is coming off a loss. With San Jose in the middle of a road trip and coming off an emotional win against Calgary, look to Edmonton’s top line to put up a big night here and don’t be afraid to pay up for the well-correlated trio.
Superstar to Target
Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks at L.A. Kings ($7,300)
As with most big slates, we have some big talent we can pay up for, but there’s also some decent value to be had among the top-tier names as well. Patrick Kane heads into this game having scored 18 points in his last 10 games yet still is available at well under $7,500. The Kings have issues on the blueline with Drew Doughty and now sit with the fifth-worst penalty-kill in the league.
The slate has a big variety of favorites, so much so that Kane could easily go overlooked in this spot. Since the end of January, Kane has scored over 40.0 DKFP three times and that kind of upside should never go overlooked when it’s coming with palatable prices and potential low ownership. Build around the trending Kane if you can.
Value on Offense
Kevin Hayes, Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues ($3,700)
The Flyers just traded away their captain and that’s left a pretty obvious hole in the middle of their lineup. Kevin Hayes is finally healthy and looks to be a player they’ll use to fill the void left by Claude Giroux. Hayes is currently carrying the Flyers’ first line and has averaged well over 19.0 minutes over his last four starts. He’s grabbed four points in his last two games and is going to continue to eat up a ton of offensive zone starts and special teams usage. If you need a cheap mini-stack, there’s no reason to shy away from Hayes, or the Flyers’ first line today, which has produced a couple of solid games of late.
Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild ($4,400)
The Wild are coming off a shutout performance, so it’s likely many of the Canucks forwards will go under-owned in GPPs today. Pettersson is still quite undervalued though at sub-$4,500—his lowest price in over five games—and is averaging 11.7 DKFP over his last 10 starts. The Wild are a team who don’t mind getting into shootouts and still sit with a below-average penalty-kill that comes in with just a 76% effectiveness rate. Pettersson is a good one-off value and a player who has been a solid back when priced at these levels.
Semyon Varlamov or Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders vs. Detroit Red Wings ($8,200)
The Islanders head home today and take on a Detroit team who has been overtly terrible on the road. The Red Wings have a 9-18-3 road record this season and a -45 goal differential, making them one of the worst road teams in the league. The Islanders enter this game 6-2 in their last eight games and both of their goalies have played well over this stretch. Varlamov is coming off a shutout performance two days ago and could be in line to get the start today. He’s averaged 15.5 DKFP in 15 home starts this season and has now stopped 61 of the last 63 shots he’s faced.
If it is Sorokin playing then you really shouldn’t have any issues switching to him. Detroit has scored more than two goals just once in their last six road games and Sorokin has been solid himself of late, posting a save percentage of .929 or better in his last five appearances. The Islanders’ goalies are affordable in the low-$8K range and in a great spot today to produce for daily fantasy hockey purposes.
Value on Defense
Jeff Petry, Montreal Canadiens vs. Florida Panthers ($3,600)
Asking for the Canadiens (+220) to pull off the upset tonight may be asking too much. Still, this is a team who has scored three or more goals in three of their last home starts and has looked much improved on offense of late. One offshoot of the team’s improved play has been the return of Jeff Petry to fantasy relevance. Petry suffered through a terrible beginning of the season but has bounced back nicely over the last month. The veteran is averaging a stout 5.0 shots on goal + blocked shots over his last 10 games—a mark that puts him in elite company at his position.
Petry’s hit the blocked shot bonus in each of his last six games and his production in that area alone is enough reason to roster him at these levels. He’s also pitched in with more offense of late and is averaging 0.5 points per game over his last 10 starts. With his fantasy value rising and his worth not attached just to real-life points, he’s an easy value to target on defense today.
Power Play Defensemen
Noah Dobson, New York Islanders vs. Detroit Red Wings ($6,400)
Defense today feels like a spot where we are either paying up for the astounding upside that Roman Josi ($9,200) brings, or looking for someone under $7,000 that could bring us better value. Dobson has nine points in his last nine games, and while all those points have been assists, it’s also significant that seven of those helpers have come on the power-play. Dobson is obviously playing big special teams minutes for the Islanders (and producing) and gets a plus matchup today against Detroit, who rank fourth-last in penalty-kill efficiency.
Dobson isn’t Josi but he’s taken a big step forward as an offensive catalyst this season and has scored 15.0 or more DKFP in four of his last 10 starts. All of those totals were also achieved without scoring an actual goal (which is impressive in and of itself) and the matchup today certainly will present him with a great shot at breaking his goal drought. Don’t be shocked if Dobson pushes for the highest scoring D-man on the slate in this spot.
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