Atlanta was a plate race, so a 2-2 day for the Best Bets article isn’t bad. We live to fight another day. There should be a lot less variance this week at the Circuit of The Americas (COTA), but road course races are no walk in the park either. Compared to a plate race, road courses are calm, but they’re much less predictable than intermediate track races.
Let’s get it rolling again by looking through the data while being cognizant of context. Trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of The Americas, which gets underway Sunday Mar. 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
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EchoPark Grand Automotive Prix Winner
Chase Briscoe +1600
A.J. Allmendinger earned a surprise victory at the Indy road course in the Cup Series in 2021, so why not Briscoe? He has road course wins in the Xfinity Series (Roval and Indy GP). In his rookie season, he scored three top-10 finishes in Cup Series road races (including a sixth-place finish at COTA).
Ross Chastain +2500
These odds are a little long based on his stats. Chastain was a top-10 driver at road courses last season, and he’s always an aggressive driver. If there is a late race restart and he’s in a position to attack — based on the stats, then he should be in position— he will attack for the win.
Featured Matchup: Austin Cindric vs. Martin Truex Jr.
Austin Cindric -110
This is why Cindric is here. The Cup Series schedule is loaded with road races. It makes sense for Penske to have a road racer in their stable. Cindric is a road course phenom, but Truex is no slouch. Years ago, Truex was clearly the best road course racer in the series. Years ago, the Cup Series lacked capable road racers. With the influx of talent, Truex has been bumped from his throne. Cindric is coming for the crown on Sunday. He’s also worth a look as a winning bet (+1400). Before the COTA Cup Series race turned into an absolute disaster because of the monsoon, Cindric led four laps, earned top-5 finishes in the first two stages and was battling for the lead early in stage 3.
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Featured Matchup: Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch -125
The only normal race last season at COTA was the Xfinity race. It rained during practice and qualifying, but the race was dry. The result was the normal Xfinity result — Kyle Busch dominated. He led 35 of 46 laps and won the inaugural COTA Xfinity race. That win was nice, but Busch is not satisfied. He wants to have a win at every track in the Cup Series — an honor he used to own before NASCAR began adding tracks.
The Cup race was the craziest race in recent history. It wasn’t necessarily because of the heavy rain. The monsoon didn’t help, but the main culprit was the standing water on the track. The water doesn’t spray off the tires correctly. Sport cars and open-wheel cars spray water down. Stock cars spray rooster tails into the air and visibility becomes zero. Mayhem ensues. One driver did not have this problem. Kyle Busch ran out front with no one to limit his visibility, and he led over half of the laps in stage 3.
Featured Matchup: William Byron vs. Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson -190
Last season, Byron expected to win this race. He was running inside the top 5 in stage one, but Matt DiBenedetto ran into him. Byron had to pit under green, and the damage was too severe and limited the car for the rest of the race. He was still able to finish 11th. Byron is an intriguing pick to win at +1900. Statistically, he’s one of the top road racers in the Cup Series, but he’s been just a break away from Victory Lane.
Byron is enticing with long odds to win, but betting against Larson in a head-to-head is foolish. Larson had the best stats at every track last season, so it should be no surprise that Larson had the best road course stats in 2021. His Real Rating (a statistic that comprehensively synthesizes a driver's race) at the road courses was 0.92 (a max score is 1.00). Also, he believes he would have won the inaugural COTA race last season had NASCAR not cut the race short.
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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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