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NASCAR Picks: Motorsports Odds, Best Bets to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta

Pearce Dietrich gives his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta, which starts on March 20 at 3 p.m. ET.

Chase Briscoe won at his worst track, and there were only a few spins at Phoenix. The Best Bets article managed to go 2-2 in the “Featured Matchups” despite predicting a different style of race. After two weeks of mayhem, the drivers decided to dial back the aggression and turn laps at a track — thanks to the resin — that has become one of the least racey tracks on the circuit. Why push the car to the edge if passing is not possible at Phoenix?

Let’s get it rolling again by looking through the data while being cognizant of context. Trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta, which gets underway Sunday Mar. 20 at 3 p.m. ET.

Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Winner

David Ragan (+25000)

Atlanta could be a plate track. After practice the picture will be clearer. At that point, the odds change and possibly get cut in half. Ragan was +10000 to win at Daytona and he finished eighth in a Rick Ware car. In the 2020 Daytona 500, he finished fourth in a Rick Ware car. If the new Atlanta is a plate track, then this bet is definitely worth throwing a couple bucks on.

Featured Matchup: Chase Briscoe vs. Tyler Reddick

Tyler Reddick (-115)

The dirt trackers are taking over. That’s one storyline. The more accurate storyline is that races are being won on pit road in this package. The dirty secret that NASCAR, the media and the drivers do not want to acknowledge is that passing is difficult in the new package. The first races of this season were not won on the track, they were won and lost on pit road. The new package was supposed to limit the dirty air problem with a diffuser and it has. However, the underbody aero concept is not creating enough downforce. The trailing car still lacks the downforce needed to overtake.

None of that analysis has anything to do with Atlanta, but no one knows what to expect from Atlanta, DraftKings Sportsbook included, so now is the time to take chances on long shot winners because this track could race like a plate track. Anyone can win this weekend if Atlanta becomes another Daytona. Then again, how many times have we been promised something by NASCAR engineers only to see the concept fall flat on its face. Atlanta could become Michigan — a boring, single file lap turner. Let’s hope for the former, and in that case, it’s a toss up.

Reddick vs. Briscoe in a plate race is another toss up. Neither are particularly good plate racers, but Reddick does have an Xfinity Series win at Daytona.

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Featured Matchup: Chase Elliott vs. Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin (-115)

If we are pretending, predicting or assuming this is a new plate track, then this is a matchup of two of the best plate racers in NASCAR. Hamlin is the best, but Elliott is very good and has the home track narrative, if that’s worth anything (probably not).

The redesign of Atlanta creates different betting angles. Obviously the smooth surface and high banking could lead to a plate race. That has drawn most people’s attention, but don’t overlook the tighter corners. The track has been shrunk from 55 feet wide to 40 feet wide. That coziness is anything but comfortable and lends itself more to Daytona than Talladega. Hamlin has two wins and four top-5 finishes in the last seven Daytona races. Elliott has two top-5 finishes and has not won at Daytona over that same span.

Featured Matchup: Kyle Larson vs. Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney (-115)

It’s not that Kyle Larson hasn’t figured out plate track racing. It’s that he hasn’t gotten lucky enough to win one. That’s all that it is. Kyle Busch has won at every track on the circuit, but his wins at Daytona and Talladega are infrequent. It’s just luck, but it’s not all luck. There is some skill involved, and Blaney has mastered the skill of plate racing.

The 2022 Daytona 500 was Blaney’s if his teammate didn’t wall him coming to the finish line. Blaney won at Daytona last summer, and he won at Talladega in 2020 and 2019. All told, he has seven top-10 finishes in the last 10 plate races. He even won at Michigan last season if this race turns into a single file intermediate track snooze.

Featured Matchup: Bubba Wallace vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Bubba Wallace (-120)

Both are former plate track winners and both are way too aggressive at plate tracks. One of these guys is wrecking, and both wrecking is a very possible scenario. Bubba nearly won at Daytona to start the season. Stenhouse was threatening to win that race, but he was one of the many drivers taken out by Brad Keselowski.

Stenhouse has always been a better plate racer at the wider racing surface in Talladega. His average finish at Talladega is 14th (fifth best), while his average finish at Daytona is 20th (18th best). Bubba may only have four top-5 finishes, but he finishes more often. He has finished 17th or better in nine of the last 10 Daytona races.

Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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