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NBA Betting, Fantasy Advice: DraftKings Basketball DFS Picks, Predictions, Odds for March 14

Nick Friar breaks down Monday’s NBA slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

The NBA Cheat Sheet provides an in-depth look at Monday’s nine-game main slate, featuring DFS and Sportsbook picks.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

Top scoring game environments on DraftKings Sportsbook

Timberwolves-Spurs: 239.5 points
Bucks-Jazz: 235.5 points
Bulls-Kings: 234.5 points

Utah and Chicago have some pretty significant injuries we’re waiting for updates on. That said, Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,200) is due for a big night after Milwaukee’s embarrassing loss at the hands of the Warriors. And with Domantas Sabonis ($9,200) making his return from a two-game, non-injury-related absence against his old friends in Chicago, he’s in a good spot Monday.

Timberwolves-Spurs features my favorite high-priced play of the night, but more on that later. Keldon Johnson ($6,300) was among the Spurs who rested on Saturday, putting him in position to help San Antonio’s top dogs carry the load vs. Minnesota. Josh Richardson ($4,500) is also a good value play even with the Spurs back at full strength. When San Antonio was at full strength on Friday, he provided five-times value — and the Timberwolves gives up quite a bit in the way of DKFP to opposing wings.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $350K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]

Scheduling Notes

3rd game in 4th night

Lakers, Hawks, Clippers, Raptors, Wizards, Jazz, Timberwolves, Spurs, Cavaliers

2nd night of a back-to-back

Lakers, Hawks, Clippers, 76ers, Thunder

1st night of a back-to-back


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Key Injury to Monitor

Lakers SF LeBron James ($12,000) vs. Raptors
Raptors PG Fred VanVleet ($7,800) vs. Lakers
Bulls SG/SF Zach LaVine ($8,400) vs. Kings
Jazz C Rudy Gobert ($7,700) vs. Bucks

James isn’t listed on the injury report yet, but that’s only because the Lakers played on Sunday. If he sits out on the second leg of L.A.’s back-to-back, Malik Monk ($6,400) becomes an even better mid-range option than he’s been this month.

On the other side of this matchup, Pascal Siakam ($9,100) remains a great option in the $9K range on shot volume alone if VanVleet is a no-go. But if you’re going with a different high-priced play and still want a piece of the Raptors, Chris Boucher ($5,600) and Gart Trent Jr. ($6,500) are great ways to do it if VanVleet sits.

Favorite Pick Against the Spread

Hornets -9 at Thunder

This is only the fourth time this season the Thunder are playing in a game with a total of 230 points or more. They have yet to cover in that type of setting, and the absence of two of their three best players in Lu Dort and Josh Giddey won’t make doing so any easier on Monday.

As much as OKC is one of the best teams ATS this season — having just reminded everyone of that vs. the Grizzlies on Sunday — the Thunder are 4-6 ATS over their last 10. They’ve been solid enough ATS on the second leg of back-to-backs (6-5) this season, but again, taking away some of their big guys makes a huge difference.

Not to mention, the Hornets are 36-30-2 ATS, 5-3 ATS as road favorites and 8-5-1 ATS with a rest advantage. In a game where the over (233.5) should hit, Charlotte’s uptempo approach will keep the margin wide throughout.

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Favorite Player Prop

Spurs PG Dejounte Murray: over 23.5 points vs. Timberwolves

Murray’s worst outing of the season came vs. Minnesota back in November, but a lot has changed since then. More importantly, Murray has been on cruise control all of March, scoring 25 or more in each game he’s played in. More importantly, he’s taken at least 20 shots in every game since Feb. 25. With that type of volume, his opponent being ranked second in pace and Murray not having played since Friday, he’s in a comfortable spot to clear this number.

Favorite Value Play

Thunder SG Lindy Waters III ($3,400) vs. Hornets

As much as I have faith in the Hornets covering, Oklahoma City is still going to put up points. That wasn’t always the case this season, but the Thunder haven’t been finishing with sub-100 points since mid-February like they did so frequently before.

Plus, Charlotte is third in the league in pace and 23rd in defensive rating. Since the Hornets have also given the seventh-most DKFP to shooting guards, Waters is very much in play on Monday. He’s provided six-time value in each of his last three games — including Sunday’s game vs. Memphis, in which he moved back to the bench after a quick shift to the starting lineup.

Favorite Stud

Spurs PG Dejounte Murray ($10,800) vs. Timberwolves

San Antonio may be playing its third game in four days, but Murray isn’t. He’s been rolling this month, scoring over 50 DKFP in each game he’s played. While Antetokounmpo is in a good bounce-back spot and the battle of MVP candidates — Nikola Jokic ($12,400) and Joel Embiid ($11,800) — should be something, Murray is in a situation where his ceiling can rival their output at a much cheaper price with Minnesota ranked second in pace.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $350K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]

Place your NBA bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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