The WM Phoenix Open has been an annual source of excitement on the PGA TOUR, seeing upwards of 210,000 fans at the tournament on a given day. This week, the field is strong, with three of the top four golfers and six in the top 10 in OWGR teeing it up. Depending on how you want to build your betting card this week, you could get a lot of value choosing golfers above +4000. The risk, however, is how much win equity is at the top.
The average odds over the past eight winners here is +4300, with the longest coming from Kevin Stadler at +12500 in 2014 and the shortest coming from Hideki Matsuyama at +1100 in 2017. Both Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama have won this twice since 2014.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Scottie Scheffler to Win (+2200)
A seventh-place in the desert here last season and three worldwide finishes reading 25-20-2 should be evidence enough to consider Scheffler in this range. If his current form isn’t enough, he has top finishes against excellent fields, with an 18th at The Masters, eighth at the PGA Championship, seventh at Memorial, seventh at the U.S. Open, and eighth at The Open Championship - all of these results were last season. It feels like his win is coming any day now.
Talor Gooch to Win (+5000) | Top 5 (+800)
Gooch is playing the best golf of his career and performs exceptionally well in desert conditions, finishing 11th at Shriner’s Children’s Open (TPC Summerlin) last season and top-5 in the 2020 CJ Cup at Shadow Creek. Other than a missed cut at The American Express, Gooch’s previous four finishes read 20-27-15-1. Gooch ranks top-14 in Greens in Regulation over the last 24 rounds and 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green over the same timeframe. Gooch’s history here isn’t great, but a successful course history at this tournament isn’t necessary, with Brooks Koepka (+3000) and Kyle Stanley (+30000) winning on debut. Corey Conners (+5000; Top 5 +800) also needs consideration with how well he’s hitting it, ranking sixth in SG: Ball-Striking and 15th in Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds. A 17th here last season to go along with an improved putter early this season could be all he needs to grab his second win on TOUR.
Keith Mitchell to Win (+7000) | Top 5 (+2000) | Top 10 (+600) | Top 20 (+260)
A top-7 to start the year at Sony and a 12th last week should have Mitchell feeling confident this week. His solid play isn’t just coming from one part of his game either, ranking top-25 in SG: Tee-to-Green over the previous 12 rounds. The greens are measuring 12 on the stimpmeter, which is really fast, and Mitchell excels in these conditions, ranking 10th over the last 12 rounds. Mitchell gained +2.87 on Sunday at Pebble Beach and finished top-16 in 2020 at TPC Scottsdale.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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