The Panthers head into this slate as road favorites and with a big implied team total that is pushing near 4.0 goals. When we look at the Player Props for the Panthers’ forwards, Bennett’s prop really sticks out at near even money just to get on the scoresheet—in a game with one of the highest over/under totals of the season. Bennett hasn’t scored in two straight which is likely pushing these odds down a bit but has nine points in his last 10 games and 30 in 38 this season. Take the over to land a point today.
The Stars are coming off a big upset win over Colorado but I wouldn’t be too afraid of a letdown today. Chicago is simply not a good team and got trampled last night by Columbus of all teams 7-4. Now they face one of the most productive top lines in hockey and a goalie in Jake Oettinger who has stopped 77 of the last 81 shots he’s faced. The Stars looked undervalued today against a Blackhawks squad who has lost five of their last seven games and rank fifth-last in expected goal rate on the season.
Minnesota Wild vs. Florida Panthers
Ryan Hartman ($6,000) — Mats Zuccarello ($6,000) — Kirill Kaprizov ($8,000)
The Wild and Panthers game has loads of scoring potential on both sides, but for DFS purposes we also need to be aware of the correlation scenarios when looking at who to stack. Right now the best opportunity likely comes over on the Minnesota side with Mats Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov, who have been feeding off each other of late for big games on the scoresheet. Both players have six points over their last three games, with Zuccarello grabbing assists on nearly every one of Kaprizov’s most recent goals. They skate together at even strength on the top-line and on the PP1 for Minnesota and face a Panthers team who has just a 75% penalty-kill rate on the road this season—a rate that would rank them near the bottom of the league.
You could think of stacking the two Minnesota wingers then with another power-play specialist or defenseman, but Ryan Hartman remains likely to be your best upside option. The center has exceeded 20.0 DKFP six times already this season and has landed seven shots on net over the last two games. Minnesota’s a good five-on-five team as well, ranks 10th in expected goal rate, and Hartman’s ice-time/exposure playing with Kaprizov and Zuccarello will likely be bigger than any other Wild skater. Stack the top Minnesota trio as a starting point for GPP lineups today.
Superstar to Target
Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers at Minnesota Wild ($7,200)
We’ve talked about the Minnesota side of this matchup, now it’s time to turn our attention to the Panthers’ side. Florida comes in averaging 4.25 goals over their last seven games and remains the most productive offense in the league. It’s been a full team effort from the Panthers this season but lately we have seen their star center Aleksander Barkov carry a bit more of the load. Barkov has landed 14.0 or more DKFP in each of his last five games and is averaging a stout 3.8 shots on net over his last 10 starts—and has been more aggressive with his shot of late.
The Wild have been slipping defensively and now allowed 12 goals over their last three games, including six in a bad loss to the Jets in their last outing. We should have a great shot at seeing a multi-point effort from Barkov today, who has accomplished this feat in five of his last 10 games. This game has potential everywhere, but Barkov’s the pay-up option you should feel best about splurging on.
Value on Offense
Evgenii Dadonov, Vegas Golden Knights vs. L.A. Kings ($4,200)
The Golden Knights got shut out in their last outing, but they face a Kings team today who has allowed 3.8 goals over their last four games. Dadonov has been filling in for the injured Mark Stone in the Vegas top-six and while the goals haven’t come at an obscene rate, the opportunities have been there. Dadonov has averaged right around 3.0 shots on net over his last 10 games and has landed 3.0 or more shots on net in three of his last four outings. After an embarrassing shutout loss to Colorado, today screams bounce-back for the big forwards on Vegas and Dadonov gives you good exposure to their top-line at a cheap price. Look for him and newly acquired Jack Eichel ($7,400) to potentially break out against a middling Kings team.
Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks ($7,900)
The Stars have some injury issues at goalie and that means we’ll almost certainly see another start today from Jake Oettinger, who stopped 46 of 47 shots against the stout Colorado offense in his last outing. Perhaps there’s a chance we see some regression from Oettinger today but the more likely scenario is that he keeps rolling against a Blackhawks team who has failed to score more than one goal in three of its last six games.
The Stars are also favored at -160 in the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, making them one of the three biggest favorites on this slate (all of the favorites are around the same price today). Dallas is the clear better team and with their goalie in great form—and available for under $8,000 on DraftKings—there’s no reason not to target him for Friday.
Value on Defense
Jonas Brodin, Minnesota Wild vs. Florida Panthers ($4,400)
We don’t have what you’d call a ton of reliable value on this slate as anyone under $4,000 looks like a legitimate dart throw, or a pure blocked shot specialist. Going a little higher for Jonas Brodin then has its advantages today as the Wild defenseman still gets up some power-play exposure (he has two power-play assists in his last 10 games) and is averaging almost exactly 4.0 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games as well.
I mentioned the big implied goal totals for this game and it’s something we need to be aware of for fantasy purposes as it heightens the upside of players like Brodin, who has bigger potential for an assist or two. His price today isn’t inflated much (it’s the same it was on the last slate) and that alone makes him a great target in this likely shootout today in Minnesota.
Power Play Defensemen
Tony DeAngelo, Carolina Hurricanes vs. Nashville Predators ($6,200)
The Hurricanes’ power-play is something we can target on all slates as they are operating as the 10th best power-play in the league and have been much more efficient at home, where they have a 26% success rate for the season. Tony DeAngelo has been a very pleasant surprise for Carolina in terms of his power-play productivity and he heads into this game with the Predators having grabbed eight points in his last 10 games.
DeAngelo is also averaging 4.1 blocked shots + shots on goal and has averaged 11.1 DKFP over that same period. The Predators are a solid team but they do rank just middle of the pack in terms of penalty-killing and are in a tough spot on the road today. DeAngelo is a good pay-up target on defense and a great way to get some Hurricanes exposure.
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