Here’s how to best navigate Thursday’s five-game NBA slate via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates — we’ve had a couple nice late additions following injury updates recently.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Rozier has gotten an absurd amount of volume since Gordon Hayward was sidelined. He’s been averaging 33.4 minutes per game this season. Over the last five, he’s up to 39.5. During said five-game stretch, he’s comfortably taking around 20 shots per game — bottoming out at 18 and topping out at 27. A lot of those shots are 3-points attempts, too — where Rozier (36.1%) has shot a little over league average (vs. 34.9%).
Additionally, the last time Rozier saw Miami was Hayward’s last game before being sidelined. Even with Hayward taking up some of his usage, Rozier came five points shy of Thursday’s prop despite taking 12 shots — six fewer than his low during this recent run. With all the focus likely to be on LaMelo Ball — the only player with a higher usage rate and number of field goal attempts per minute than Rozier with Hayward off the floor — the combo guard is in a comfortable spot to go over this total.
Drummond has gone over this total in his two games since joining the Nets. It’s hard to tell if he’ll keep doing so throughout the duration of his stay in Brooklyn, but we’re only concerned with Thursday. And he is once again in a spot where his team does not have a star on the floor to take up his usage.
As we saw when he was with Philly when both Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris were out, Drummond can still fill it up when he’s not losing touches to higher-end talent. With Kevin Durant still out and this game being played in Brooklyn (so no Kyrie Irving), Drummond will have the chance to get his vs. Washington.
Plus, he’s in a favorable matchup. The Wizards have given up the second-most points per game to the center position this season, trailing only the Rockets. Look no further than Washington’s last game for what an opposing big can do vs. the Wizards — Tristan Thompson scored 17 points in just 21 minutes of work.
Also worth noting: the over is 6-1 when the Wizards are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. Additionally, Washington is eighth in defensive rating.
Brunson has been very steady for the Mavericks of late and is in a spot to maximize on his recent increase in 3-point attempts. He’s averaged 3.1 3-point attempts per game this season, but he’s hoisted up four-plus in six of his last seven and five-plus in three of his last five. The Pelicans have given up the 13th-most 3-pointers and the 6th-highest 3-point percentage this season.
The reason I like the over on his points prop rather than his 3-pointers made prop (1.5): if there’s one thing Brunson has been consistent with of late, it’s his scoring output. He has scored 19 to 22 points in six of Dallas’ last seven games (including one game where he only logged 26 minutes).
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