Welcome to the DraftKings NFL Showdown article for Sunday’s Super Bowl LVI between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams. Below, I analyze the Showdown slate and give plays to consider.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Captain’s Picks
Cooper Kupp ($17,400)
Kupp is expensive and will be massively rostered. Since anything can happen in one game, there are tons of reasons to fade or pivot off him in the Captain’s slot. That said, he has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. He received at least 10 targets in 16 games this season, went over 100 yards 13 times, failed to score a touchdown in only six games and had six games with two touchdowns. Crazy. The Bengals were 24th in pass defense DVOA and 21st in pass rush according to PFF. The Rams were first in pass blocking and fifth in pass offense. Someway, somehow, Kupp is going to get his. It’s just a matter of how much and if he will pay off his price. For perspective, Kupp exceeded point expectations 80% of the time this season. He scored at least 30 DKFP in eight games with two of those over 40, so while the probabilities of producing a “have-to-have-it” score aren’t great, it’s still well within the range of outcomes.
Van Jefferson ($7,800)
Yes, I do like the Rams passing offense in this one. Jefferson is cheap and he opens up a ton of salary. In addition, he will be very low owned. Now, he only received five targets in the conference championship and has been over five in only three games since Odell Beckham Jr. ($12,600 CP; $8,400) arrived. The thesis for the play is two-fold. One: The Bengals focus their attention on Kupp and Beckham, which could open up things for Jefferson. He does have 18 red-zone targets on the season. Two: Jefferson has an aDOT of 13.5 on the season. Beckham is at 12.9 while Kupp is at 8.6. The Bengals allowed a DaDOT of 8, which was 13th in the league (the Lions allowed the most at 8.7), but they gave up the most air yards on completions by a wide margin with 2,984. The Washington Football Team was second with 2,714. The Rams have pass blocked well while the Bengals have struggled at times to get pressure. That could give time for Matthew Stafford ($16,200 CP; $10,800) to chuck it deep and, if the Bengals shade their coverage toward Kupp and Beckham, Jefferson could have some opportunities to get behind the defense. Are the probabilities high for this play? No, and it would require efficiency because the volume will be lacking. It is within the range of outcomes, though, and is a path of differentiation to separate from the pack.
FLEX Plays
Rams DST ($3,400)
Can you tell that I like the Rams in this one? What could go wrong? The Bengals have an explosive offense with a great, young quarterback. According to PFF, they had the second-best passing offense behind only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so this call could go horribly wrong. That said, the Bengals have a major weakness, and that is the offensive line. They were 25th in pass blocking this season. Now they face a Rams defensive line that had the most robust pass rush in the league. In terms of DVOA, the Rams were fifth in rush defense and sixth in pass defense. The Rams racked up 55 sacks, six fumble recoveries, 24 interceptions and two touchdowns. They scored at least 10 DKFP five times.
Samaje Perine ($2,400)
Perine only plays around 25% of the snaps as the Bengals have some guy named Joe Mixon ($14,400 CP; $9,600). Perine is utilized in the passing game, though. He received four targets in the conference championship, which he turned into three receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown, and received five targets in two games this season. He’s more for a salary saver but he has some upside, especially if my narrative consists of the Rams dominating this game with the Bengals having to be aggressive in the passing game.
Matthew Stafford ($10,800)
I like the Rams to score plenty of points in this one with most of it coming through the air. If that’s the case, then I’d hope that Stafford is the one to get busy. The Bengals are 13th in rush defense DVOA and 24th in pass defense. The path of least resistance looks to be through the air. Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards nine times this season with at least three touchdowns in eight games. He put up over 30 DKFP three times.
Fades
Ja’Marr Chase ($10,400)
Chase is one of the most explosive, young receivers in the game. He went over 30 DKFP three times this season with a high of 58.6. He also scored fewer than 20 DKFP in 11 games with four under 10. Now he could get shadowed by Jalen Ramsey and Joe Burrow ($15,900 CP; $10,600) may not have enough time in the pocket to get him the ball consistently.
The Outcome
There have been 24 Super Bowls that have had a final margin of victory of more than 14 points. That is how I see this game, with the Rams dominating on offense, defense and special teams. They are just so balanced and have playmakers on both sides of the ball. The two things that my mind keeps focusing on are the huge advantage in the trenches and the experience factor, as this will be Sean McVay’s fourth trip to the playoffs including a trip to the Super Bowl back in 2018.
Final Score: Rams 35, Bengals 16
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