EXTRA FOOTBALL!!!!!

Let’s talk about what’ll no doubt be a very confusing week in the NFL.

You have to follow me on Twitter or else you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Indianapolis Colts (-15; -1125) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+700)

Betting trends:
Jaguars 2021 home record: 1-6
Jaguars 2021 home record when underdogs: 1-6
Jaguars 2021 ATS record: 4-12
Jaguars 2021 ATS record when underdogs: 4-10

Colts 2021 road record: 5-2
Colts 2021 road record as favorites: 1-0
Colts 2021 ATS record: 10-6
Colts 2021 ATS record as favorites: 4-3

This game is expected to be a blowout but earned some relevancy after the Colts lost to the Raiders in Week 17. The Colts simply have to win this game to make it into the playoffs but to be fair, it never should have come to this point. Now, I’m sure you’ve seen all the “trends” saying the Colts HAVE STRUGGLED AGAINST THE JAGUARS ON THE ROAD DROPPING FIVE STRAIGHT. Like, c’mon now, give me a break. People will come up with the dumbest crap and try to use it as an edge. Do I give a flying you know what that the 2016 Colts couldn’t take down the Jaguars in London? Uhh, no? I care about about the 2021-2022 Colts can do in THIS game here. These past results where 99% of the players from that game aren’t involved means nothing to me.

Now, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that I DO HOLD a “Colts to miss the playoffs” ticket that I placed in the preseason when Carson Wentz ($5,800) was not a lock to start the season under center. I figured that was dead going into Week 17 but it has the slightest of slight heartbeat at this time. So I personally would not be upset in the Jaguars somehow came away with a win. But, let’s be honest, it’s unlikely. The Jags have been putrid at home and have lost games by an average of nearly two touchdowns, at -13.7 points. Then, of course, they have to attempt to stop Jonathan Taylor ($9,300). Opposing running backs have averaged just over 4 YPC and 99 yards per game. Taylor is second in the league in yards after contact, averaging 3.83 per attempt and a total of 1,213. For reference, those 1,213 yards after contact is more than ANY running back has in the league TOTAL. Absurd. Joe Mixon has the second most total rushing yards at 1,205

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Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Seattle Seahawks (+215) vs. Arizona Cardinals (-6.5; -265) Over/Under: 48

Betting trends:
Cardinals 2021 home record: 3-4
Cardinals 2021 home record as favorites: 3-4
Cardinals 2021 Over/Under record: 7-9
Cardinals 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 4-6

Seahawks 2021 road record: 3-5
Seahawks 2021 road record as underdogs: 1-3
Seahawks 2021 Over/Under record: 5-10-1
Seahawks 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 1-5-1

This is one of the highest projected scoring games of the week, despite one of the worst playing in this game. We have a ton of really low totals this week for obvious reason but this one is biggest by quite a margin. The Seahawks have been one of the worst teams hitting the over all season long but at least as of late, they’ve done so in four of their last five games and have averaged 29.6 points in that span. Can that keep that up in the final week against the Cardinals?

The Cardinals have been the offense you have to worry about lately. In three games without DeAndre Hopkins, they’ve averaged just 17.7 points per game, which is a sharp drop-off from the 26.2 they’ve averaged on the season. This could be just the matchup to help steer the ship in the right direction again, as this Seahawks defense allows plenty. Despite them scoring at such a high rate, they’ve also allowed an average of 22 points per game over the last five. This secondary is ripe to be picked on, as they’ve allowed 9th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers and nine total touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Zach Ertz ($5,300) has been one of the biggest beneficiaries without Hopkins, drawing 33 targets, including four in the red zone, through three games without him. I think this game goes over the biggest total on the slate.

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NFL Week 18 Betting Splits

These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Last Updated: Friday, January 7th, 12:00 p.m.

For the latest updates, be sure to follow my Twitter @SBuchanan24

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NFL Betting Trends

This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.

Teams Against the Spread:

Teams Over/Under Records:

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Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets, $8,100 — Allen is the most expensive QB on the slate but he’s my top option to roll out with. The story lately has been his rushing upside, which has been on full display, particularly over the last few weeks. Since the 14-10 loss to the Patriots in Week 13, Allen has run the ball a total of 42 times in four game since for a whopping 278 yards and three touchdowns. Three of those games featured double-digit carries and all of them saw him average 5.4 yards or better. Now he faces a Jets team that can’t stop the run and a lot on the line for the Bills. As double-digit favorite, Allen should provide enough, even at this $8,100 salary. Through the air in Week 10 against them, Allen was 21-28 for 366 yards and two touchdowns.

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Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets, $7,800 — Diggs has a couple of contract incentives that are up for grabs in Week 18. One of them seem out of reach, as he can earn a bonus if he goes over 1,375 receiving yards. He would need 232 to go over that number and while it’s not totally out of the realm of possibilities, it feels out of reach. He is knocking on the door of 100 receptions, which he needs six of. That will certainly be a factor in where the ball goes on Sunday, so Diggs is the choice here (as he usually is anyways). Diggs dismantled this secondary in Week 10, going for 162 yards on eight catches and a touchdown for 33.2 DKFP. He particularly burned CB Brandin Echols in coverage, making two catches on three targets for 63 yards, one of them being his 57 yard reception.

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The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.

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