Week 18. Last week of regular season football. DJ, cue up the Boyz II Men. Time sure does fly when you’re having fun. There are two games on Saturday and no Monday night game, so the main slate will consist of 13 games. COVID-related illnesses have spiked over the last week, so make sure to follow @dklive for all the updates.

Listed below are the RBs that I think will return the best value at their price point on DraftKings, whether as studs or value plays, and their opportunity projections are also included.

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Studs

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars, $9,300

The price tag is high, especially for a running back who isn’t heavily involved in the passing game, so there is merit to fading him. Projected ownership and roster construction will be huge variables. That said, the game script should be a favorable one as DraftKings Sportsbook has the Colts favored by 15 points on the road in a win-and-in scenario. Taylor has scored 20 total touchdowns on the season with 18 of those on the ground. He has 87 red-zone carries and four multi-touchdown games. He’s received at least 20 carries in six of the last seven games and gone for over 100 yards in all but one. In the first three weeks, he went for 17.6, 6.3 and 8.2 DKFP. Since then, he’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in 11 of 13 games with four of those over 30 and a high of 56.4.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 23.4 attempts
Receiving: 2.6 Targets; 2.0 Receptions

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings, $6,800

The Bears are 2.5-point road underdogs, so that is not ideal for his situation. That said, the Vikings are in disarray right now and Montgomery has been one of the few bell-cow running backs lately. He’s received 22 and 21 carries over the last two games with nine and seven red-zone rushes. Over the last five games, he’s garnered two, nine, six, seven and nine targets with a total of seven in the red zone. The Vikings are 25th in rush defense DVOA.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 17.1 attempts
Receiving: 5.4 Targets; 4.1 Receptions

Values

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets, $6,000

DraftKings Sportsbook has the Bills favored by 16.5 points at home. There is plenty to play for as a win secures the AFC East title. Over the last three games, Singletary has taken the reigns of the backfield and rushed 23, 12 and 22 times. He’s gone over 100 yards once and scored two, one and one touchdowns. The passing game involvement has been inconsistent as he’s received one, six, one and seven targets over the last four games but game script had something to do with that. The most important numbers are the nine, five and five red-zone rushes he’s had. There should be plenty of those this week as the Falcons are 30th in rush defense DVOA.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 15.3 attempts
Receiving: 2.8 Targets; 2.2 Receptions

D’Onta Foreman, Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans, $5,700

The Titans rush at the second-highest rate in the league on the season. Since Derrick Henry went down, it’s dropped down to the fourth-highest so the offensive philosophy hasn’t changed much. The backfield has been a three-headed monster for most of the time replacing Henry, but last week Foreman lept to the forefront with 65% of the snaps. That translated to 26 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown. In the last five games, the production has been all over the map as he’s carried 26, nine, 22, 13 and 19 times. He has rushed over 100 yards in three of those games, though. He received three red-zone carries last week with Dontrell Hilliard getting one. Jeremy McNichols and Hilliard received three and four in the prior two weeks so there’s risk and uncertainty to this situation. That said, the Titans are favored by 10.5 points on the road and the Texans are 24th in rush defense DVOA.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 15.7 attempts
Receiving: 1.5 Targets; 1.2 Receptions

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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