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NBA Betting, Fantasy Advice: DraftKings Basketball DFS Picks, Predictions, Odds for January 31

Nick Friar breaks down Monday’s NBA slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

The NBA Cheat Sheet provides an in-depth look at Monday’s eight-game main slate, featuring DFS and Sportsbook picks.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

Top scoring game environments on DraftKings Sportsbook

Warriors-Rockets: 228.5 points
Clippers-Pacers: 221.5 points
Raptors-Hawks: 219.5 points

My favorite stud and value play for Monday come from the night’s top scoring environment, so more on Warriors-Rockets later.

As for Clippers-Pacers, I don’t love things on Indy’s side of the game outside of Domantas Sabonis ($9,800). But I do think Luke Kennard ($5,000) is a strong value play given his recent form. He’s returned five-times value on Monday’s price tag over his last five games, eclipsing 35 DKFP in three of those games. Kennard’s shooting has been efficient, but he’s been doing a bit of everything for the Clippers of late.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]

Scheduling Notes

3rd game in 4th night

Clippers, Hawks, Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Celtics, Pacers, Grizzlies, Heat

2nd night of a Back-to-back

Clippers, Hawks, Trail Blazers, Cavaliers

1st night of a back-to-back

Pelicans, Heat, Raptors, Warriors

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Key Injuries to Monitor

Heat SF/PF Jimmy Butler ($8,900) at Celtics
Kings PG De’Aaron Fox ($8,100) at Knicks
Pelicans SG Brandon Ingram ($7,700) at Cavaliers
Pelicans C Jonas Valanciunas ($8,000) at Cavaliers

Tyrese Haliburton ($8,500) does pretty well for himself whenever Fox isn’t on the floor, and Davion Mitchell ($4,900) becomes a good value option in that same scenario. Same can be said of Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,200) if Ingram is a no-go vs. Cleveland, though the guard’s price tag jumped up quite a bit despite his recent rough showing in Boston.

As for Heat-Celtics, Bam Adebayo ($7,500) posts a team-high 1.35 DKFP per minute when Butler is off the floor this season. Miami’s center is a play I like on Monday no matter what, but he becomes a much better option if Butler can’t play.

Favorite Pick Against the Spread

Grizzlies (+2.5) at 76ers

This is about as open and shut as it gets.

The 76ers are one game over .500 ATS, and that’s about the best thing they have going on Monday. They’re 7-10 ATS as home favorites this season. Philly is also 4-6 ATS when playing with a rest advantage.

The Grizzlies are riding a three-game winning streak, covering in five of their last seven. They are the best team ATS (34-18) and ATS with a rest disadvantage (10-5) this season. Memphis is also 11-6 ATS as road underdogs and 7-3 ATS on the second leg of back-to-backs.

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Favorite Player Prop

Thunder SF/PF Lu Dort: over 22.5 points+rebounds vs. Trail Blazers

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, Dort becomes one of the better DFS plays of the night. He has the highest usage rate on the Thunder with SGA off the floor at 26.9% — a 4.4 percentage-point bump. And we saw him go over this number on points alone Friday when SGA suffered his injury, which happened after the guard had logged 17 minutes. Dort took 16 shots in that one and should easily match that output on Monday. Even if he’s not immensely efficient, that volume combined with the work he does on the glass will help him get north of this number.

Favorite Value Play

Warriors PG/SG Jordan Poole ($5,500) vs. Rockets

With Otto Porter Jr. out Monday, Poole becomes one of the more appealing value options on the slate. He doesn’t get a huge bump in usage with Porter and Draymond Green off the floor, but he still has the third-highest usage rate (25%) on the team in that situation (behind only Steph Curry at 30.9% and Klay Thompson at 30.4%). Poole returned over six-times value last time Golden State played Houston, and this game has the highest total on the slate at 228.5 points.

Favorite Stud

Warriors PG Stephen Curry ($11,000) vs. Rockets

Yes, we’re doubling down on Warriors guards Monday.

For those worried about Curry suffering from a potential blowout scenario, he dropped 51.5 DKFP on Houston on Jan. 21 — a game Golden State only won by two points. Still, it’s the Rockets. The game could go much differently on Monday.

But I like Curry in this one no matter what because of the manner in which he produced vs. Houston 10 days back. He had a rough shooting night but still got up 21 shots and dished out a season-high 12 assists. Also, on top of his team-high 30.9% usage rate with Porter and Green off the floor this season, Curry posts 1.29 DKFP per minute in that situation.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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