Divisional Weekend was arguably the best slate of football games we’ve ever had. We’ll see if we can get anything close to that level of entertainment on a Sunday that will determine the Super Bowl matchup. Let’s dive into some plays on DraftKings Sportsbook!
For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow. I’ll usually come back with some additional plays as the week goes on in this article, including some player props over the weekend.
6PT Teaser: KC -1/SF +9.5 (-120) — 1-unit
If you listened to the Unreasonable Odds podcast this week, you’ll hear how I’ve put myself in a bit of a window here. I have a larger teaser on KC -0.5/SF +9.5, and then am looking to bring some back on KC -0.5/LAR +3.5. Breaking a key rule of teasing through zero, but I feel a little different here since it’s to give myself a 13-point window.
Now, all of this hinges on the Chiefs taking care of business at home, but I think they will. I love Joe Burrow and the Bengals have accomplished a lot, but Ryan Tannehill also gave away that game. The road atmosphere will be harsh at Arrowhead Stadium. I don’t think he’ll be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company here.
The other game, my lean is San Francisco. If you made me bet the game, it’s SF +3.5. But I’m just not confident enough, even with both of the head-to-head wins this season. But the third matchup between division rivals, I do have faith this will be a close one, hence the teasers I’ve built. If I’m giving my best bet, it’s just the teaser posted above.
Mahomes’ rushing prop is a popular one, but it’s also getting bet up pretty high. Floating around 30 is a fair number, as his recent game log indicates. But generally Mahomes is just ripping off a long run each game when it’s there. This isn’t a guy that runs looking for room like a Lamar Jackson. Mahomes runs when he sees green grass and knows he can get a first. His long rush over his past four games has been 34, 23, 25 and 17 — 34 and 23 being the “gotta have it” playoff games. He’s also gone over the last five games that he’s attempted a rush. AFC Championship with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, Mahomes puts his body on the line.
I’m not brave enough to take an under on passing yards, and frankly kind of lean over. But San Francisco does not want to sling it 30-plus times in this one. Jimmy G has attempted 19 and 25 passes so far in the two playoff games, staying well under this number. He also went 15-of-19 passing in the first matchup against the Rams this season when the Niners won big. But even in the 27-24 victory to make the postseason, Garoppolo only threw 32 times. Keep in mind, that was with his team falling behind 17-0 and the game going to overtime. Anything but a blowout by the Rams, and this should stay under. Jimmy has stayed under this mark in 12 of the 17 games he’s played this season.
What scares me about this bet? Volume. Akers remarkably handled 24 of the 25 RB carries last week. That’s shocking just six months removed from a torn Achilles. That said, here are his numbers since returning — five carries for three yards in his debut versus these Niners, and then 17 for 55 and 24 for 48 in the playoffs. Again, scary volume, but it also hasn’t been working. In those three games since returning, Akers is averaging 2.3 yards per carry and 35.3 rushing yards per game. Keep in mind, Akers had two crucial fumbles last week, which could lean to at least a bit more Sony Michel this week. Oh yeah, and the Niners haven’t allowed a RB to rush for 64-plus yards against them since early November.
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