We have a two-game NFL slate on Sunday. Sad face, as that means the football season is almost done. The Chiefs host the Bengals while the Rams host the 49ers. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Chiefs favored by seven points while the Rams are favored by 3.5 points. The CIN/KC game has a total of 54.5 while the SF/LAR game is at 45.5.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for this weekend’s main DraftKings NFL slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Quarterback
Stud
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs, $6,600 — Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) has the highest floor/ceiling projection on the slate, so I initially had him written up. He’s also the highest priced quarterback and is expected to be the highest-rostered one as well. Looking at current projected ownership numbers, Burrow is at 23% while Mahomes is at 42%.
Mahomes is coming off of two 40-plus DKFP games and went for at least 30 DKFP during the regular season four times. That said, he did have five games under 20 DKFP. Burrow is coming off of two sub-20 DKFP games and went under 20 DKFP seven times during the regular season. He went over 30 DKFP three times. The last time he faced the Chiefs, though, he went 30-of-39 for 446 yards and four touchdowns, which was good for 37.84 DKFP. Mahomes went 26-of-35 for 259 yards and two touchdowns in that one. Granted, that game was in Cincinnati during the regular season. Playing in Kansas City is a different experience, especially during the playoffs.
The Bengals have a suspect offensive line and Burrow took nine sacks last week. Against the Chiefs four games ago, he took five sacks. Kansas City blitzes at the eighth-highest rate in the league, so that could be an issue for a suspect offensive line. On the flip side, that means lots of one-on-one opportunities in the secondary. Ja’Marr Chase ($6,700) caught 11 of 12 targets for 266 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs. The Bengals have tons of talent on the receiving depth chart.
Mahomes will likely be the correct option, but if he approaches 50% ownership, then I lean towards Burrow. The floor is lower, but he has access to a similar ceiling. If Mahomes disappoints and Burrow comes close to scoring the same amount of DKFP or exceeds him, then you will vault over 40% to 50% of the teams out there.
Value
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers, $6,300 — It’s a two-game slate so eenie, meenie, miney — no to Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,400). So, by process of elimination, Stafford it is. He’s coming off of an impressive game against the Bucs last week, going 28-of-38 for 366 yards and two touchdowns.
He’s scored fewer than 20 DKFP six times this season while exceeded 30 three times. He’s surrounded by talented playmakers at wide receiver, but the ceiling is limited compared to Burrow.
My issue with this game is that a shootout is unlikely. This will be the third time that these teams have played and the divisional rivals know each other very well. In the prior two meetings, the scores were 24-27 and 10-31, with Stafford scoring 19.52 and 11.82 DKFP.
For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.
Running Back
Stud
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs, $6,800 — It looks like ownership will be evenly spread out amongst the running backs. Mixon is the highest-priced back by a wide margin, but he’s one of the few bell cow backs who will get most of the work between the 20s, the red zone, long down and distance, short yardage and in the passing game.
Over the last four games played, he’s played in 72%, 77%, 71% and 82% of the snaps. He’s received seven, five, eight and six targets over that span with a total of 24 red zone opportunities. He hasn’t received 20 carries in the last seven games, but he does have games with 28, 30, 20 and 29 carries on the season.
In the last meeting against the Chiefs, Mixon rushed 12 times for 46 yards, caught seven of eight targets for 40 yards and had five red zone opportunities. During the regular season, the Chiefs were 20th in rush defense DVOA and allowed the fifth-most targets to running backs.
Value
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers, $5,000 – San Francisco was 2nd in rush defense DVOA during the regular season, so the matchup isn’t a good one. That said, Akers has taken over the backfield since returning to action. Granted, it took him a few games to get back up to speed, but he received 81% of the snaps last week, garnered all the red zone looks amongst the running backs and got three targets in the passing game. The Rams don’t throw to running backs often in general. The price is too cheap for the role, expected volume and the Rams are 3.5-point favorites at home.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers, $8,800 — Linus had his blanket. Stafford has Kupp. He’s expensive, but you’re paying for the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate.
In 19 games this season, he caught 159 of 209 targets for 2191 yards and 18 touchdowns. He received at least 10 targets in 16 of those games and exceeded 100 yards 12 times. He had five games with two touchdowns.
In two meetings against San Francisco this season, Kupp caught all seven of his targets for 118 yards and a touchdown in one while hauling in 11 of 13 targets for 122 yards in the other.
Value
Byron Pringle, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $4,300 – This Pringle doesn’t entice you to reach into the jar for more, as he hasn’t hauled in 100 yards in a game this season and has gone under 50 yards 12 times. That said, he does have eight touchdowns, and over the last five games, he’s played in 76%, 57%, 71%, 48% and 80% of the snaps. He’s received seven, seven, eight, four and seven targets while garnering two, two, one and two red zone targets. Who is Number Two? *puts pinkie to mouth* That would be Pringle.
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $6,500 – Kelce has scored a touchdown in five straight games with one game hauling in two. He’s gone over 100 yards twice over that span and received nine, seven, five, seven and 13 targets. Against the Bengals, he only caught five of seven targets for 25 yards and a touchdown, but during the regular season, the Bengals allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and sixth-most targets to the position.
Value
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers, $3,700 – The 49ers were one of the top teams at defending the tight end during the regular season, so what did Higbee do against them during the regular season? Six receptions for 55 yards and two touchdowns in one game and three receptions for 20 yards and a touchdown in the other. Of course. Higbee has 85 targets on the season while missing three games.
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Rams DST, Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers, $3,200 – Jimmy Garoppolo. End of analysis.
Value
Chiefs DST, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $3,000 – The Bengals’ offense is explosive, but they do have offensive line issues. Burrow took nine sacks last week and the Chiefs got him for five in their previous meeting. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places to play, so that could have an impact. The Chiefs should be able to put up points, so there’s a chance Burrow will have to be aggressive which could lead to turnovers as well.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.