The Blues take on a Calgary team Monday that has now lost five of its last six games. The Blues themselves are in the midst of a streak that’s seen them win six of their last seven games and go 2-0 on the first two games of a West Coast road trip. St. Louis is now mostly back to full strength and facing a Flames team that is just 5-4-4 at home this year. We could have a close one on tap, but the Blues aren’t a team that will go down easily at the moment, and the Flames’ hot shooting from early in the year has dried up. There’s good value on the Blue ML today.
The Stars take on the Flyers Monday, a team that we need to keep picking on for totals. Six of the last 10 opponents the Flyers have faced have scored four or more goals against them, and the Flyers enter this game having given up the third-most quality scoring chances this season. Dallas has scored five or more goals five times in their last 10 games and enter with the league’s fourth-best power-play unit. The Stars over 3.5 goals at plus-money is a nice target for betting cards Monday.
Robert Thomas ($5,200) — Vladimir Tarasenko ($7,500) — Jordan Kyrou ($6,100)
I’ll stick with one of the teams I like on the money line Monday in the Blues. Their top six are all in a great spot against a Flames team that has allowed 20 goals in the last five games. While all the Blues’ top six forwards look slightly underpriced, for big-field tournaments on this bigger slate, the Blues second line is the one I like targeting. The Flames lack of forward depth will likely be an issue for them Monday, especially trying to contain the speed of this second unit.
The trio of Thomas, Tarasenko and Kyrou have combined for 12 points over their last four games as a unit. Tarasenko and Kyrou both average over three shots a game and are capable of getting us a multi-goal night on pretty much any slate. We don’t get as much power-play exposure or power-play correlation with this line as we do with the Blues first line, but the Flames have good special teams and have killed over 90% of their penalties at home this year.
The better matchup for St. Louis is likely at 5v5, where this line will be in shape to take advantage. With Both Kyrou and Tarasenko have grabbed 15 points apiece over their last 10 starts, and pairing them with the lower-priced Thomas gives you a great piece of one of the better offenses on the slate at an affordable price.
Superstar to Target
Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild vs. Montreal Canadiens ($8,100)
Kaprizov has been on a quiet tear of late — a run that includes grabbing 15 points in his last 10 games. With Kaprizov playing in Minnesota, it’s sometimes easy to forget about him being one of the game’s most electric players. He’s also turned into one of the best bets on wing for fantasy purposes and heads into this game averaging a stout 4.5 shots on goal per game, which puts him up near the best in that regard at his position.
Despite all that, Kaprizov remains relatively cheap, as he’s just the fifth-most expensive winger on this slate, yet has the most attractive matchup on said slate. The Canadiens have won a couple of games in a row now but still remain one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing over 35 shots a night. The Wild have a huge 4.1 implied team total, and Kaprizov seems certain to cash in for more fantasy goodness in this spot. He’s become a great everyday pay-up target and is one of the best bargains among the elites Monday.
Value on Offense
Tyler Toffoli, Montreal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild ($4,700)
The Canadiens enter this game on a two-game winning streak and face a Wild team that allow 32.7 shots per game, the seventh-most in the entire league. Toffoli has been solid for the Canadiens of late and is up to 12 points scored in his last 10 games alone. We know when he’s playing well the winger can be one of the most proficient in the league at getting his shot on net, and he’s now landed three or more shots in each of his last four starts. The value-upside combo available at under $5K with Toffoli is worth taking on.
Conor Sheary, Washington Capitals vs. Vegas Golden Knights ($3,100)
The Capitals continue to be without some big names up front (T.J. Oshie/Anthony Mantha), and that’s meant more opportunity for a player like Sheary. The winger continues to be an opportunistic scorer for the Capitals, and he comes in averaging 3.1 blocked shots plus shots on goal per game and with five goals scored over his last 10 games. Despite all that, Sheary is available at his lowest price point in over seven games Monday and faces a Golden Knights team that’s has allowed the ninth-most scoring chances against this year. He’s a great punt option again for today.
Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers vs. Los Angeles Kings ($8,100)
Shesterkin is well in the running for the Vezina trophy this year. He enters this game with a 19-4-2 record and a .936 save percentage. He has been even better at home, where he sports a sub 2.00 GAA and a .940 save percentage in 10 starts. On Monday, the Rangers are solid -160 favorites on the money line on DraftKings Sportsbook and face off against a Kings team that averages well over 34 shots on net per game — but still average just 2.8 goals scored per game. It’s a great upside spot to pay up for one of the best goalies in the game at the moment.
Value on Defense
Justin Schultz, Washington Capitals vs. Vegas Golden Knights ($3,700)
The Capitals’ injury and lineup issues have created some good value opportunities, and the salary we’re getting on Schultz Monday makes him an excellent value target. The defenseman has played over 21 minutes in three of his last four games and is filling a top-four role on defense for the Capitals while also playing top-unit power-play minutes.
Schultz hasn’t lit up the scoresheet yet, but he’s been solid for fantasy purposes, landing three or more blocked shots in two of his last four games while also picking up a couple of assists in that span. The point production for Schultz should continue to pick up given his power play exposure and overall talent level offensively. Keep using him while he’s priced under $4K.
Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals ($5,900)
Theodore was featured in this article the last time I wrote it and came through with a juicy 26-DKFP game, which include three points scored. The Vegas defenseman is somehow still available at under $6K in salary and has now scored 11 points in his last 10 games while also averaging an elite 4.8 shots on net plus blocked shots per game over that same span.
Theodore’s usage seems to go underrated or undervalued in the fantasy markets, as he’s essentially splitting power-play time with teammate Alex Pietrangelo ($7,100) and has also outscored him by a wide margin, in fantasy production terms, over the last 10 games. Keep paying down here for Theodore, who is clearly the better value option on the Vegas blue line.
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