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NFL Picks Fantasy Football Values: Top DraftKings DFS Bargain Plays for the Divisional Round

Steve Buchanan goes position-by-position to find the best affordable plays for this week’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Super Wild Card weekend brought (some) drama with a number of blowouts. This weekend, the drama should be real. No team (as of Friday) is more than a -5.5 favorite and the totals are all set with at least 47 points. Let’s see some values we can use in our daily lineups for the weekend main slate, ya digggggg?

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Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,200 — The term “value” can be a tough one to throw around on a four game slate. Pickings are going to be slim so bare with me if some of these salaries don’t feel like a “value.”

Stafford is one of the cheaper plays on this slate and quite frankly, he could be considered in one of the best spots. With a lot of the ownership gravitating to both Josh Allen ($7,600) and Patrick Mahomes ($7,300), I absolutely love taking Stafford here. He’ll be facing a Tampa secondary that’s struggled all season long. I mean when in the final two weeks of the season, the Jets and Panthers receivers combined for 27 catches and 261 yards, you should have some concern. The Bucs don’t get a lot of pressure on the quarterback and Stafford has been protected well throughout the season, seeing pressure on just 26.2% of his dropbacks. In Week 3, the Bucs had him under pressure 30% of the time but Stafford still threw for 114 of his 343 yards with an average of 10.4 yards per pass attempt.

Don’t take his 21 pass attempts from last week as a bad sign, as the Rams blew out the Cardinals. During the year, the Rams played in five games that were decided by seven points or less. In those games, Stafford averaged 32.8 pass attempts, 261 passing yards and 13 passing touchdowns.


Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills, $4,800 – Now, this will be something to monitor during the weekend. During the Chiefs practice on Friday, Coach Andy Reid wouldn’t commit to Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,200) or Darrel Williams ($4,200) playing against the Bills. Either back being ruled out would be a big bump to McKinnon, who took advantage of more playing time last week. He carried the ball 12 times for 61 yards and caught all eight of his targets for an additional 81 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 26.2 DKFP on just a $4,300 salary. McKinnon was on the field for 78% of the snaps and rushed the ball once in the red zone and saw two targets as well. If he can replicate even the majority of this production and looks, he’ll be one of the better values on the slate.


Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers, $4,400 – The value at wide receiver is where you can certainly pay down. Lazard caught my eye immediately going against the 49ers. After a sluggish start to the season, Lazard has seen at least six targets in four of the Packers' last six games, averaging a whopping 14.4 DKFP in that span. Seems to be quite busy for someone who is under $4,500, eh? Not only that, Lazard has seen 10 targets in the red zone over those last six games, a span he caught four touchdowns in.

This matchup lines up well for Lazard, as teams have been able to go downfield against this secondary. Lazard has the second-best aDOT on the Packers at 10.88. The Niners allowed an average of 8.2 YPT, which was one of the highest in the league. With the looks Lazard is getting in the red zone against a very beatable secondary, I think this is a fantastic spot for Lazard.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, $4,800 — Boyd has been one of the better value plays for weeks now and yet, his salary doesn’t budge much. I mean, this is someone that has scored a touchdown in four straight games and yet over that span, his salary has gone DOWN $100. The best thing that happened was him not playing in Week 18 against the Browns, as it dropped his salary down from $5,600 to $5,000 last week. An average game against the Raiders last week brings us to $4,800 and in my opinion, one of the better values.

Boyd has seen no less than five targets in six straight games, which has seen him average 14.7 DKFP. He’ll operate out of the slot, as he normally does and will see CB Elijah Molden in coverage. Against opposing receivers, Molden has allowed a 69% reception rate, 11.8 YPR and three touchdowns scored against. Amongst all the Titans corners, the 259 yards after catch allowed by Molden was the highest on the team by 71 yards.


($4,000 and under)

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, $4,900 – This is pretty easy for me, as I think Knox at $4,900 is a steal. Sure, a lot of it has to do with him reaching the end zone but Josh Allen ($7,600) looks in his direction A LOT. Knox has seen at least one red zone target in EVERY game he’s played this season. He’s seen at least two red zone targets in a game seven times this season. If they’re throwing in the red zone, Knox has gobbled up 17.1% of those targets. One could argue that the Chiefs have been tough against this position, giving up a total of six touchdowns on the year. You know who even tougher against tight ends? The Patriots. The team he made five catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns against? Yeah, that team.

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