We have a four-game NFL slate which is comprised of two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday. The Titans host the Bengals and the Packers host the 49ers on Saturday. On Sunday, the Buccaneers host the Rams while the Chiefs host the Bills. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Packers as the biggest favorite at six points while the other three games are all 3.5 points or closer - TEN -3.5 over CIN, TB -3 over LA and KC -2.5 over BUF. The KC/BUF has the highest total at 54 while TB/LAR is second at 48.5 points. The other two games have a total of 47.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for this weekend’s main DraftKings NFL slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs, $7,600 — This game has the highest total and Allen has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. He’s scored at least 30 DKFP six times this season with three of those over 40. He’s passed for at least 300 yards in seven games but what provides the high floor and access to ceiling is the rushing prowess. He has four games with at least 10 carries and has exceeded 50 yards on the ground eight times with one game over 100 yards. On the season, he totaled 829 yards on the ground with six touchdowns. In the red zone, he’s carried 33 times for 152 yards and six touchdowns. These teams played in Kansas City back in October. Allen went 15-of-26 for 315 yards and three touchdowns while rushing 11 times for 59 yards and a touchdown. That translated to 39.5 DKFP. During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Value
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,200 — Stafford has five games with fewer than 20 DKFP, with one game in the single digits. That said, over the last three games, he’s gone for 24.28, 19.52 and 20.26 DKFP. He’s attempted at least 30 passes 14 times with four games over 40. The Bucs are 12th in rush defense DVOA, and while they are 10th in pass defense, the path of least resistance is through the air. These teams met back in late September and Stafford went 27-of-38 for 343 yards and four touchdowns in that one. That was good for 32.52 DKFP, his season high.
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Running Back
Stud
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, $6,600 — Over the last three weeks he’s played, Mixon has garnered 77%, 71% and 82% of the snaps while receiving five, eight and six targets in the passing game. He dominates the red-zone looks as his 60 red-zone opportunities are most by a wide margin over all the other receivers. Mixon has scored fewer than 20 DKFP in 10 games this season with three in the single digits. That said, he’s had seven games with at least 25 DKFP with two over 30.
Value
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs, $5,900 – Singletary is THE guy in the Bills’ backfield, as he’s received 86%, 76% and 68% of the snaps over the last three weeks. He’s gotten four, two and one target in the passing game but it’s been his workload in the red zone that has been most eye-opening. He’s received six, seven and nine money touches. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most targets to running backs on the season and they are 20th in rush defense DVOA, worst among the remaining playoff teams.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers, $8,500 — Adams finished second in the league with 169 targets, 22 behind Cooper Kupp ($8,600), but Adams missed a game. Kupp is a fine option since the Rams will likely be throwing and he scored two touchdowns against Tampa Bay in the earlier meeting. That said, while he’s scored a touchdown in each of the last three games, the target count has come down. He’s received seven in each of those contests after receiving at least 10 in 14 of the prior 15 games. Adams is Aaron Rodgers’ ($7,100) boo and he’s going to get fed. The last time these teams met back in September, Adams caught 12 of 18 targets for 132 yards and a touchdown.
Value
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers, $4,400 – The 49ers are second in rush defense DVOA so the Packers will likely lean towards the pass, which isn’t such a bad thing with Rodgers at the helm. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,300) did not practice on Wednesday so he could be out for this weekend’s game. If he doesn’t play, then Lazard would garner a bigger role. Even if MVS plays, Lazard was still playing close to 80% of the snaps. The 49ers have been exploitable in the secondary, and over the last five games, Lazard has received six, six, five, four and seven targets. He’s scored a touchdown in four of the last five games with two, one and one in the most recent three.
Tight End
Stud
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams, $5,800 – Over the last three games, Gronk has received six, 10 and 10 targets. He’s gone over 100 yards in two of those contests and hauled in a touchdown last week. The Rams have allowed the 10th-most targets to the position, and with Jalen Ramsey likely matched up on Mike Evans ($6,800), Gronk should get plenty of opportunities.
Value
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $4,000 – Higbee has 85 targets on the season despite missing two games. He’s received at least five targets in 12 games, scored five touchdowns and garnered 22 red-zone targets. The last time these teams met, Higbee caught all five of his targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. On the season, Tampa Bay allowed the ninth-most targets to the position between the 20s and in the red zone.
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Packers DST, Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers, $3,200 – The Packers scored double-digits five times. The unit racked up 47 sacks, nine fumble recoveries, 20 interceptions and two touchdowns. If Rodgers and the offense can put up points and force Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,200) into comeback mode, then there could be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies because you know Jimmy G is due for at least one horrendous pick.
Value
Titans DST, Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $2,900 – The Bengals’ offense has been robust recently but it’s the playoffs now and the Titans are at home. The unit has scored at least 10 DKFP six times and racked up 43 sacks, five fumble recoveries, 16 interceptions and three touchdowns. The Bengals are 25th in pass blocking while the Titans are sixth in coverage. If they control the game and make the Bengals one-dimensional, it’s within the range of outcomes that the unit scores some points.
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