All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
After a light night in the NBA on Tuesday in which we cashed our only ticket, Wednesday offers up a massive NBA card. The flow of news leading up to the game could offer up some player prop edges, but there are some sides that intrigue me. Specifically riding some of these first quarter/first half trends that’ve been doing us well so far this month.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
CLE 1Q ML (-125) — 1.5-units
CLE -2.5 (-110) 1-unit
Our favorite spot here with the Cavs on the road, and this time they happen to get one of the slowest starting teams in the NBA. Cleveland is an NBA-best 31-14 1Q ATS, and an absurd 20-4 1Q ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Bulls are an NBA-worst 17-25 1Q ATS, and are down their starting backcourt of Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine. At this point, Cavs 1Q is an auto-play for me on the road. But I do like the matchup here with the Bulls shorthanded, so I’m also playing a bit on the full game here.
MIN 1Q ML (+100) — 1-unit
We won on the Wolves in the first frame on Tuesday as our only play, but I wanted to make sure there were no red flags here on the back-to-back. The Wolves are the third-best 1Q ATS team in the NBA at 28-16, a balanced 14-8 both at home and the road. In their five previous back-to-backs this season, they’ve gone 3-2 1Q ATS. Minnesota has covered the last two first quarters on the road in the second night of a back-to-back, and got some momentum with a great fourth quarter in New York the previous night. The Wolves are now on an 8-3 1Q ATS run. Then we have the Hawks, who’ve been getting out to really slow starts at home lately. Atlanta is just 2-8 1Q ATS over its last 10, so I think the spot is worth getting back in on.
DEN 1H -4 (-115) — 1-unit
The shorthanded Clippers have been fair against the first half number recently, but overall are 19-24-2 1H ATS. It’s not a fade of them, but they haven’t done anything to keep you away from going against them if they do face a strong starting team, which is what the Nuggets are. Denver is on a 7-3 1H ATS run right now, with an average lead of 9.3 points per game — getting it done with margin. The Nugs have also already played well in this matchup, going 2-0 1H ATS in matchups against the Clips, and both were on the road.
MIA/LAL ML Parlay (-115) — 1-unit
I think the Heat are in a pretty safe spot at home against the shorthanded Blazers. Even with Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro out tonight, there’s plenty of depth, and Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are there to carry the load. The scary thing here is backing the Lakers at any point in time. That said, they’re coming off a huge win, and this would be the perfect time for them to gain some momentum. Something I’m not afraid of is fading the Pacers on the road, where they’re just 3-17 on the season. I’m essentially using the Heat to just get rid of the points with the Lakers here.
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