The American Express should be a tournament we mine for value instead of focusing on the favorites this week. We’ll still cover someone we should consider who’s near the top of the board, but over the past five years, the average odds amongst the winners have been +16800, with the longest coming from Adam Long at +50000 in 2019 and the shortest coming from Jon Rahm at +1100 back in 2018.
If you’re keen on betting first-round leaders, having golfers with the right tee draw should give you an edge. Golfers who start on the Nicklaus Tournament Course or La Quinta CC should have an advantage with it routinely playing as some of the easiest courses in scoring relative to par all season. Like last week, we should be focusing on golfers who’ve played in Hawai’i recently and guys who are further down the board.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Talor Gooch to Win (+2000)
Let’s go back to the well with Gooch, who got off to a slow start last week but still finished T27. His last three starts at The American Express read T21 in 2021, T17 the season previous and a T4 in 2019. Gooch’s fourth place was bookended with a 67-64 on the Stadium Course while gaining 3.8 strokes with his irons in the process. Gooch’s win at The RSM Classic is also a tournament with a course rotation, and he hasn’t lost strokes with his irons over the previous seven measured events. It’s a tall order to win on TOUR, let alone twice in four starts, but Gooch is playing the best golf of his career, and we should strike when the proverbial iron is hot.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $600K Flop Shot [$150K to 1st]
Tom Hoge to Win (+13000) | Top 5 (+2200) | Top 10 (+800)
| Top 20 (+400)
A missed cut at the Sony shouldn’t deter you when choosing Hoge as one of your longshots this week. Hoge isn’t the best Off-the-Tee, unless he’s here, gaining in five of his six showings off the tee box at this tournament. A fourth at the RSM Classic earlier this season and a sixth here in 2020 are indicators that he’s used to playing well in tournaments with a course rotation. Hoge also finished 12th at the AT&T Pro-Am last season and ranks 25th in SG: Total on Dye courses over the previous 24 rounds.
Russell Knox Top 20 (+300)
A top-seven finish in last week’s tournament and four-straight made cuts here are healthy signs for Knox backers this week. With two top 20s along that stretch, Knox has been solid with his approach in Palm Springs, gaining 6.7 strokes on PGA West over his previous two starts. Another top-seven finish and two top 20s in his past four starts at Pebble Beach start to paint a picture that Knox has a knack for these types of formats.
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The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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