The Jets are coming off a small layoff but return to action against a Capitals team who has now lost five of their last six games. The Capitals have been getting up and down goaltending of late and are also likely to be without John Carlson, TJ Oshie and Conor Sheary. The Jets aren’t a flawless team by any means but they certainly have the firepower to take advantage of a Capitals team at less than full strength. Connor Hellebuyck rebounded nicely after a poor effort against Colorado and gives Winnipeg an edge in net as well. The plus-money with the Jets is worth taking in this spot.
DFS players will remember Tuch from his days in Vegas where he was always a solid value target, producing well over 3.0 shots per game on average at his peak. He’s now in a first-line role with the Sabres and has been playing upwards of 20 minutes per game since returning from injury. The shot volume should go up for Tuch, who was great at creating his own chances in the past. He’s taking on a Senators team who allows the fifth-most shots on net per game and makes for a good value target in the player props.
Nashville Predators vs. Vancouver Canucks
Mikael Granlund ($5,400) — Filip Forsberg ($6,500) — Matt Duchene ($6,900)
The Predators’ top-line is back to full strength and makes for a great correlation stack once again. This unit is one of the few top-lines in the league that plays together at even strength and on the power-play and has a plus matchup against the Canucks. The line heads into this game ranked eighth in goals produced (by a single line) and that’s with them spending many games apart due to injury.
Forsberg looks like the most underpriced of the trio and would make for a great stud to build around on his own. He’s averaged 3.5 blocked shots + shots on net over his last 10 games but has been hyper-efficient scoring-wise with eight goals and 14 points in his last 10 games. While you’d like more from Granlund, Forsberg’s hot stick and Duchene’s ability to produce multiple-goal games means a potential double assist game is on tap for the center, who is averaging a quiet 0.94 points per game so far.
The Canucks are still a great matchup as they have the league’s worst penalty-kill and have allowed four or more goals in three of their last four games. This unit is a good one to start lineups with as they’re cost-effective and still leave room for another higher-priced duo to pair them with.
Superstar to Target
Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers at Calgary Flames ($7,100)
Huberdeau was our stud to target the last time the Panthers were on the slate, and he came up with four points in that spot against Dallas as the Panthers’ offense continues to tear a hole through the entire NHL. Huberdeau’s price since then hasn’t moved much at all (it’s actually $100 cheaper) so we really don’t have much reason to consider fading him.
The winger has been more involved offensively than center Aleksander Barkov this season, who continually gets priced around the same as his teammate. The concern might be the matchup with the Flames, but they’ve started to regress alongside many teams in the West and have now allowed 20 goals in their last four starts—including six to Florida a few games ago. You need to get a piece of the Florida offense whenever they’re on the slate at this point and Huberdeau’s repressed price (and his role in the top-six and top power-play) makes him the best starting point to accomplish that goal by far.
Value on Offense
Denis Gurianov, Dallas Stars vs. Montreal Canadiens ($3,700)
The Dallas Stars have a meeting with the Montreal Canadiens today so it would of course be negligent not to mention at least one of their players for DFS. The Stars are suffering from a couple of injuries, with Jason Robertson’s absence on the top-line being the most important of the bunch for DFS. Gurianov’s likely to stay in his second-line role alongside Jamie Benn today but the unit could also see more offensive chances, especially on the power-play where Dallas tends to keep their top-two units together for the entire game.
Gurianov is a streaky producer but Montreal allows the most goals per game, has the fourth-worst penalty-kill, and allows the fourth-most shots on net. The Russian has also been heating up a bit as he’s produced two goals in his last two games. Expect to see more usage from him in a spot that couldn’t be better for some production.
Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals ($7,300)
As mentioned above, one reason I do like taking a shot with the Jets today on DraftKings Sportsbook is the fact they have an advantage in net. Hellebuyck enters this game off a 33-save shutout and has been terrific of late, sans one bloodbath at the hands of perhaps the best offense in the NHL in the Avalanche. The Capitals are not the Avalanche though and haven’t scored more than three goals in a game in seven starts. They’re likely to be without their best defenseman too, which has the potential to seriously hamper their effectiveness on the power-play.
This is a night where we have some big salaries and big offenses to pay up for, so while Hellebuyck and the Jets do sit at just +105 on the Moneyline, taking the discount with the higher risk of a loss is likely worth it—especially in big GPPs where we’re trying to hit our absolute ceiling. He doesn’t have the best odds of grabbing you a win, but Hellebuyck’s upside to price ratio is likely unmatched tonight.
Value on Defense
Justin Schultz, Washington Capitals vs. Winnipeg Jets ($3,000)
The Capitals will likely be without John Carlson in this spot, and if that’s true, then expect Justin Schultz to again be the main man on the power-play for Washington. In his last start without Carlson in the lineup, the former Oiler skated for 23 minutes and grabbed a power-play assist while also adding in two shots on net and three blocked shots. The Capitals don’t really have any choice but to give Schultz bigger minutes and the Jets still rate out as one of the worst penalty-kills in the league (second-worst overall).
Even if I’m right and the Jets take this game, the Capitals’ most likely route to a goal or two will come on the man advantage where Schultz will be likely to contribute. His increased usage makes him a great target, regardless of matchup, but a point contribution could almost be expected given Winnipeg’s weaker special teams and Schultz’s own offensive ability.
Noah Dobson, New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers ($5,600)
If you are looking for a little cheaper option on defense, then looking to the Islanders’ power-play isn’t a horrible idea at all. The Islanders put up four goals on the Flyers in their last game and get the same sad Flyers squad today who has now lost eight games in a row. Dobson patrols the PP1 for the Islanders and has averaged a solid 4.0 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games, while also picking up eight points—three of which have come on the power-play.
I fully expect the Isles to score three or more goals again against Philly (who allows the second most shots on net per game). Dobson’s a great mid-tier value just based on his role and recent production alone but also makes for a good stacking target with any of the Isles’ first-line forwards.
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