All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
With the way Joe Burrow is playing, my attention in this game is on all props related to Cincy’s passing game. Yes, the Raiders’ larger weakness on defense has been against the ground attack, but opposing backs also tend to get involved in the air attack vs. Vegas.
The Raiders gave up four-plus receptions to an opposing running back in each of their last two games of the season. Eight other running backs managed to hit the over on Mixon’s total vs. the Raiders this season. And while Cincinnati’s top back wasn’t part of the air attack vs. Vegas in Week 11, he was targeted heavily in Week 16 and 17 — he was out Week 18. Mixon reeled in all six of his targets vs. the Ravens and went 7-for-8 vs. Kansas City in the season finale.
Harris has found paydirt vs. the Bills four times, scoring at least once in both meetings. Buffalo only allowed an opposing running back to score on the ground in five other games this season, but they struggled against big-name backs. Like Harris, Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry also had multi-touchdown showings vs. the Bills. Leonard Fournette scored once in Week 14. The Bills can slow some running backs down, but not the elite ones.
No team has allowed more touchdowns to tight ends this season than the Eagles. That might lead some to back Rob Gronkowski to score (+100), which is a sound bet, but he’s not the only Buccaneers pass-catcher who’ll get red-zone targets. In fact, he didn’t even lead Tampa tight ends in red-zone targets this year. Brate does, trailing only the unavailable Chris Godwin 25-20 for the team lead.
Now of course, Gronk missed five games and Brate played all 17. There’s a reason Brate has longer odds than his fellow Tampa tight end and Mike Evans (-105). But, three of Brate’s four touchdowns this season came in games that featured Gronk. And of the 20 Tom Brady passes thrown his way in the red zone throughout the season, Brate has reeled in 11 of them.
The Niners will try to find a way to work around Dallas’ air-tight pass defense, but that’s going to be a significant challenge. The Cowboys are second in pass defense DVOA. They led the NFL with 26 interceptions in the regular season.
Garoppolo will need to sling it quite a bit with this game’s total being the highest of Wild Card Weekend on DraftKings Sportsbook at 51. He logged at least one pick in eight of the 15 games he played this season, accruing 12 in total. Four of those came in Garoppolo’s last two games played.
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