We made it through a wild season of betting the NFL regular season. While week to week bets were a loss of just over four units, we also netted over 25 units in the futures market. But the ATS number tells us what we need to know — tread lightly. Unless something really jumps out to me closer to kickoff of these games, I’ll just be dishing out best bets in two of these matchups. Keep it to the stronger plays. Let’s dive into some plays on DraftKings Sportsbook!

For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow. I’ll usually come back with some additional plays as the week goes on in this article, including some player props over the weekend.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

6-Point Teaser: NE +10.5/UNDER 50.5 (-120) — 1.5-units

I haven’t made a same-game teaser or teased a total all season, but that changes on Saturday night. I put this one on Twitter on Wednesday, but the number is still essentially there as I publish this article on Friday. In fact, the Patriots are +4.5 (-105) which might be something I add to a little bit on Saturday.

Divisional dogs have been fantastic ATS recently in the postseason, which really plays to the Pats here. We know Buffalo’s offense can open it up and take it to a level New England can’t, but we saw that on a mild day at Gillette Stadium. The first wind game we saw on MNF might be closer to what we see this time around. Not as extreme on the wind, but we’re looking at single-digits on the thermometer, potentially with some snow. That all favors the Pats.

Josh Allen has shown serious issues playing in cold weather along with other elements we’re seeing in the weather. Bill Belichick might be able to muck this game up like he did last time in Buffalo and escape with a win, or at least keep it close. Teasing underdogs in the Wild Card Round the last four years has gone 17-1, so I think the Pats are a great leg, and it corralates very well with a low total, particularly given the weather.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

LAR -3.5 (-115) — 2-units

I also put this one out on Twitter on Wednesday, and think it’s playable to -4. This goes against the divisional dog in the postseason trend, but I think experience, talent and momentum all come into play here. Yes, Matthew Stafford absolutely needs to chill with the interceptions, but the Rams have advantages all over the field.

Sean McVay has experience in the postseason and has taken a team to the Super Bowl. Cooper Kupp has been a machine, whereas Kyler Murray won’t have DeAndre Hopkins. The Rams have game-changers like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey on defense. All the talent they invested in, the Rams need this game.

Then we have the Cardinals, which in classic Kliff Kingsbury fashion, completely collapsed down the stretch. Remember, this team was 7-0 to start and sat at 10-2 at one point in time. The Cards finished 11-6 — losers of four of their last five, which started in a MNF game against these Rams.

The Arizona win in Los Angeles earlier in the year was Kingsbury’s only win against McVay, who is 5-1 in their head-to-heads. The Rams have dominated this matchup, going 9-1 in the last 10 (8-1-1 ATS). I’ll take the better team at a short number at home when we consider the cliff Arizona has fallen off down the stretch.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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