All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The NBA is in a wild place right now, but that also leaves edges to be had. The prop market is always booming these days, so we’ll see if a big Friday card presents any opportunities (it usually does). But I have one side that’s been circled since Wednesday night, and I’ll be playing it for the full game, and potentially adding a first half play. I also wrote up a couple of interesting trends and props being offered on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
CHI -3 (-115) — 2-units
I tweeted this one out on Thursday night, knowing we’d probably see some movement faster than usual with how embarrassing a loss the Warriors suffered in a nationally televised game. I’m comfortable playing this for the same unit size up to -4.5, and think we have some blowout potential here again. Obviously, the Dubs keep it closer than they did on Thursday, but this is a really tough road back-to-back against a very good Bulls team.
Draymond Green is a crucial piece to what Golden State does, and they look lost without him against top competition. On top of that, Klay Thompson (who has added some scoring help) and Gary Payton II (a solid role player) will both sit this game out after starting on Thursday.
The Warriors are pretty average ATS on the road this season, but the Bulls have been tremendous at home — 15-5 straight up and 13-7 ATS. The Bulls also have other edges here, going 9-4 ATS this season when they have the rest advantage over their opponent. Chicago was also embarrassed at home on Wednesday night against a fully loaded Brooklyn team, which should lead to a solid bounce-back — 7-4 ATS off a loss.
The Bulls also have the revenge factor from the earlier game this season at Golden State when they blew a lead and lost. All four stars for Chicago are playing, and while the fifth piece on the floor is more of a question mark at this point due to injuries, the Warriors are much more shorthanded for this one.
I’ll probably consider adding some first half here when the market opens. The Bulls are averaging a lead of almost four points per game in home games, and are on a 7-3 1H ATS run. The Warriors are just 6-13-1 1H ATS on the road.
I didn’t play Cavs 1Q on Wednesday and regret it. I was afraid it wasn’t a good spot, and of course they covered with ease (and won the game handily as an underdog), improving to 19-3 1Q ATS on the road this season. Now they meet their match in the Spurs, who are the second-best 1Q ATS team in the NBA at 28-13 overall and 13-5 1Q ATS at home. Passing for now, but at some point Cavs 1Q might just be an auto-bet.
This is a cool bet I wanted to point out under DK Promotions that we have going on for the NBA BetStream. The “Stocks” market is catching on when it comes to NBA props — what we call how many steals and blocks combined a player records. I think we can make the argument for Joel Embiid here, despite averaging just 2.5 combined per game (Williams is 3.0 and Thybulle 2.8).
Embiid should get the most minutes here, giving him more chances. Both Williams and Thybulle average less than 30 minutes per game. Williams will be tasked with covering Embiid, and Thybulle will be battling Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on the wing. Both players could easily get into foul trouble. That could be the edge we need on Embiid.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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