Playoffs? We talking about playoffs? Yes, ladies and gentlemen. The playoffs are upon us and it’s Charlie Sheen time when the frauds get exposed and the true contenders take their first steps to glory. We have a two-game slate on Saturday with the Raiders visiting the Bengals and the Patriots traveling to Buffalo to take on the Bills. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Bengals favored by five points with the total at 49.5 while Buffalo is favored by four points in a 44-total game.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Saturday’s main DraftKings slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots, $7,900 — The range of outcomes is wide for Allen in this one. DraftKings Sportsbook has the total at 44 and over the past four games against New England, he has two games with 154 and 145 yards passing while he went over 300 in the other two with three and four touchdowns. These teams obviously know each other well and while the Bengals-Raiders game could be a juicy one — the total is 49.5 — the last time those two teams played each other, Joe Burrow ($7,300) passed for 148 yards while Derek Carr ($5,800) went for 215. Burrow is the only other quarterback on the slate who could match Allen’s ceiling, but I am leaning toward the ceiling and rushing prowess of the Bills’ signal-caller.
Value
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals, $5,800 — I’m a Raiders fan and even I feel gross writing up Carr. He’s exceeded 20 DKFP just once in the past 10 games. That said, it’s a two-game slate and this game does have a total at 49.5. Mac Jones ($5,300) is facing the Bills’ top-rated pass defense and he put up 7.1 DKFP the last time the teams met, so I’ll hold my nose and roll with Carr.
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Running Back
Stud
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $7,100 — The Raiders are 26th in rush defense according to PFF. These teams met eight weeks ago and Mixon rushed 30 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns. One plus one equals two. Mixon has 51 red-zone opportunities. No other running back on the team has more than seven. While he isn’t a force in the passing game, he’s still garnered 48 targets on the season.
Value
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots, $5,800 – Singletary has scored double-digit DKFP in five straight games with over 20 in the past two. He’s scored a touchdown in four straight, including one game with two trips to the end zone. He’s carried 19, 23, 12, 22 and four times while garnering two, one, six, one and seven targets. The important numbers are the six, nine, five and five carries and three total targets in the red zone. The last time he faced New England, he carried 12 times for 39 yards and a touchdown while hauling in five of six targets for 39 yards.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $7,800 — Chase is the most expensive receiver on the slate and that’s scary because his floor is so low. He’s coming off a 4.6-DKFP game and has four games under 10 DKFP on the season. That said, his ceiling is also sky high as he has a 58.6-DKFP performance on the resume. He can literally score from anywhere on the field and has three multi-touchdown games. Meanwhile, the Raiders allow the fifth-highest aDOT in the league.
Value
Zay Jones, Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals, $4,000 – Over the past six games, Jones has played in 86%, 84%, 86%, 75%, 77,5 and 89% of the snaps. He’s received eight, 10, eight, nine, seven and five targets over that span with two red-zone looks. The targets are not all of the dink-and-dunk variety as he had yards-per-reception marks over 10 in two of those games with a long of 42 yards.
Tight End
Stud
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals, $5,700 – In his return from a five-game absence, Waller received nine targets but only hauled in two for 22 yards. When healthy, he’s the alpha in the passing game for the Raiders and there were only two games in which he didn’t receive at least seven targets. On the other side, the Bengals allowed the sixth-most targets to the position during the regular season.
Value
C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $3,500 – Uzomah leads the Bengals’ tight end group with 63 targets. Meh. He’s had five games with over five targets in a game. Meh! He has six red-zone targets on the season. MEH!!! That said, he has two multi-touchdown games. Yippee! And the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most targets to the position. Yippee!!! The fifth-most fantasy points. Yippeeeeee!!!! And the third-most touchdowns. YIPPEEEE!!!!
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Bengals DST, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $2,900 – Most will flock to the Bills DST but they put up 1 DKFP in their last meeting with the Patriots. The Bengals racked up two sacks, recovered two fumbles and picked off Carr once in the last meeting while holding the Raiders to 13 points. That was good for 12 DKFP. On the season, they’ve produced double-digit DKFP four times and produced 44 sacks, nine fumble recoveries, 13 interceptions and two touchdowns on the season. The Bengals’ offense should score points in this one which will motivate the Raiders to tilt toward the air at some point. Carr drives better with wheels on the ground.
Value
Patriots DST, New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills, $2,700 – In the last meeting, the Patriots’ DST scored -1 DKFP. That said, they put up eight DKFP in the first meeting and it’s Bill Belichick in the playoffs. He can always cook up something saucy. On the season, the New England DST has scored double-digit DKFP eight times with two games above 20. The probable outcome is that the Bills’ offense gets busy but there’s a greater than Lloyd Christmas chance of them having a good game.
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