Follow along on Twitter (@julianedlow) for any potential updates — things can always change with lineup moves leading up to tipoff. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The NBA is in a wild place right now, but that also leaves edges to be had. Nothing jumping out early in the prop market, but one thing that’s been going well for us lately are playing first quarter trends. So I’m going to look there for a best bet on this card, then hopefully come back and add a play or two in later in the day when lineup news has more clarity.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
MIN 1Q -0.5 (-120)
It takes some time to build reliable data, but about three months into the season now, I think we’re there. If you’ve followed my plays in past seasons, you know I play a lot of first quarter and first half plays in the NBA as the season processes. We learn which teams start fast and which start slow, and can take advantage of that in these lines.
So as you’ve probably gathered by now, the Timberwolves are one of those fast starting teams, while the Pelicans are not. Minnesota ranks third in the NBA with a 24-16 1Q ATS record. Meanwhile, the Pelicans rank in the bottom-five in the league at 17-23 1Q ATS — they’re even slightly worse at home with a 6-13 1Q ATS record, setting us up with the perfect spot to fade them.
Both teams are pretty much healthy for this one, which is rare in the NBA these days. So nothing to exploit injury-wise, but I think the Wolves are the better team, and the numbers tell us we should see made clear early in this contest.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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