Let’s goooo! The college football season flew by, and we’re going to finish profitable no matter what at this stage. Now it’s time for the cherry on top — hands down the two best teams in the country going head to head in an SEC Championship Game rematch for all the marbles.
Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for betting analysis throughout both NFL and CFB season. One quick note if you aren’t following on Twitter, you really need to be. In Week 6 we had Penn State (+110) on the moneyline for 1-unit, which looked good up 17-3 early. But it was obvious when the QB got injured that PSU was not going to be able to hang on and win that game. I tweeted out that we’d be switching sides at halftime, locking up some nice profit on Iowa (+165) for 2-units. While the article will give my favorite plays, we need to keep our heads in the game.
Let’s make some money on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s be honest, the New Year’s Eve games can be fun to have, and it was awesome to profit on both, but those games were pure domination by Georgia and Alabama. Now it gets real, with the two best teams in the country squaring off again, in what I expect to be a tremendous game. It’s a fascinating game from a value perspective. Some bettors “can’t believe ‘Bama is a dog.” Others see the UGA -6.5 line from back on December 4 down to -2.5, and they “can’t resist the value.”
When you think about it, you can’t make the Crimson Tide the favorite here. The line is already a four-point swing from when these teams played on a neutral field five weeks ago, and the Bulldogs were the better team all season long. The book is going to need Georgia here, but that doesn’t always mean it’s the right side.
Georgia seems to have some kind of mental block against ‘Bama. It has lost the last four Kirby Smart versus Nick Saban matchups, even when holding commanding leads. Anytime you tell me we get ‘Bama with the better coach and better QB as the dog, I’m intrigued. Oh yeah, and Saban has been an underdog six times since taking on the Alabama job — he’s 5-1 straight up in those games.
On the flip side, we’ve seen a couple of regular season matchups that became a rematch in the National Championship Game, the loser of the first matchup won both rematches. Obviously, that would favor Georgia, who I do expect to play much better this time around.
The advantage the Bulldogs have is simple — they didn’t need to win the SEC Championship. They lost and here they are, right where they want to be as a favorite in the National Title game. Meanwhile, ‘Bama absolutely had to win that game last month to keep their championship hopes alive. Hopefully they didn’t show too much the first time around.
The total is also interesting — sitting about 4.5-points higher than the last matchup. That might be an overreaction to the shootout in the last matchup. If Georgia wins, you probably like the under. If Alabama wins, you probably like the over. Either way, if you’re a value better, this shift in the total points you to the under.
So where do I stand on this game?
I’m sitting on my 2.5-unit future for Alabama to win it all at +220. Maybe if I wasn’t coming off such a good season in NFL futures I’d do a partial hedge here, but I’m letting it ride. I put the ‘Bama futures up on Twitter back in September, so hopefully you tailed. Georgia’s going to be the sharp side in this one, but I’m going to need to see Georgia pull this off before I put any money there. So if you haven’t bet this one yet, I’d side with a 2-unit play on Alabama moneyline at anything better than +110.
Props are going up and down on Monday, and we’ve missed a bit of the value. I wish I wrote a couple up last week, but if I see them return to the props section, I’ll be sure to add them.
As for this prop, I can’t turn down a really good plus money payout of Young to toss three touchdown passes. Young has 46 TDs through the air in his 14 games this season, including three in the SEC Championship Game against UGA and the last game in the College Football Playoff. Overall, Young has gone 10-4 to this prop this season, with all four unders finishing on exactly two TD passes. I know how good the Georgia defense is, but I’ll always back ‘Bama’s offense against anyone.
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