The NBA Cheat Sheet provides an in-depth look at Monday’s seven-game slate, featuring DFS and Sportsbook picks.
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Top scoring game environments on DraftKings Sportsbook
Bucks-Hornets: 236.5 points
Nets-Trail Blazers: 228 points
76ers-Rockets: 227 points
It’s too early in Kyrie Irving’s ($8,800) return to understand how to navigate Brooklyn from a DFS perspective when he’s in, but Anfernee Simons ($6,400) remains a legitimate option on the other side of that contest. Simons’ consistently rising price should scare some off, too. But the top options from these three situations come from Philadelphia and the Bucks-Hornets matchup. Terry Rozier ($7,100) has been on fire from deep recently and goes up against a team he just dropped 45 DKFP on, while Seth Curry ($6,600) is coming off consecutive 40-plus DKFP showings and remains without Tyrese Maxey (health protocols) and Shake Milton (back) — a situation in which he has a 23% usage rate.
EDITOR’S NOTE: 76ers SG Seth Curry (ankle) has been ruled out Monday vs. the Rockets.
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Scheduling Notes
Back-to-back
Cavaliers, Nets, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Kings, Rockets
3rd game in 4th night
Cavaliers, Nets, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Kings, Rockets, Bucks, Jazz
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Key Injuries to Monitor
Pacers PG Malcolm Brogdon ($7,800) vs. Celtics
If Brogdon is a no-go and Caris LeVert (health protocols) remains out as expected, Domantas Sabonis ($10,300) becomes one of Monday’s best high-priced options, regardless of position. His usage rate is a healthy 23.5% with those two off the floor this season, and he averages 1.23 DKFP per minute in that scenario. Lance Stephenson ($4,200) also becomes a value play you should get some exposure to.
Favorite Pick Against the Spread
Cavaliers (-5) at Kings
The Cavaliers haven’t been great ATS recently, which is understandable. They were red hot for a while, and they also recently lost a huge piece in Ricky Rubio after already losing Collin Sexton. But while I can’t take much stock in their 26-12-2 record ATS, I feel much different about their 4-2-1 record ATS on the back end of back-to-backs and 11-5-1 record ATS after a loss. This is a young team that’s out to prove something.
The Kings, on the other hand, are only 3-5 ATS on the second day of a back-to-back. Furthermore, they’re 10-16 ATS on equal rest and 6-8 ATS as home underdogs.
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Favorite Player Prop
Celtics SF/PF Jayson Tatum: 2.5 3-pointers vs. Pacers
If you’re looking for a one-unit player prop pick, the over on Tatum’s 3-pointers made (-120) is the way to go on DraftKings Sportsbook. He’s only had fewer than six 3-point attempts once in the last nine games, converting three-plus in six of those instances. Tatum has been more efficient on some of those days than others, but he’s clearly not shy about pulling up from deep, eclipsing 10 3-point attempts five times in the aforementioned nine-game stretch.
If you’re looking for a pick with more value but maybe only want half a unit, backing LaMelo Ball to post a double-double (+210) is the way to go. He came close to a triple-double on Saturday vs. the Bucks, which would’ve been his fifth double-double in the last nine games. Ball has logged 14 double-doubles (some of which were triple-doubles) in 31 games played this season. So, to me, backing him in some capacity to get one at plus-money after coming up short last time out is a no-brainer.
Favorite Value Play
Spurs SG/SF Lonnie Walker IV ($4,200) vs. Knicks
As much as Stephenson is a strong pick if Brogdon doesn’t play in Boston on Monday, Walker is my favorite option. The Indy guard will be chalkier if Brogdon is out, and San Antonio is hurting at shooting guard. No Derrick White, Keldon Johnson or Doug McDermott. That turned into 20 shot attempts, 25 points and 39.75 DKFP for Walker on Sunday. The volume is what I really can’t turn down at this price.
Favorite Stud
76ers C Joel Embiid ($11,000) vs. Rockets
With Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) each facing a team they recently posted 70-plus DKFP against, the choice between the two bigs is tougher than usual on Monday. The edge goes to Embiid despite Milwaukee-Charlotte having the higher projected total because of his ridiculous 41.3% usage rate without Maxey and Milton on the floor this season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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