Week 1! We made it! Here are my top five NFL QB-WR stacks for DraftKings fantasy football this week. Let’s get to it.
For the uninitiated, the concept behind stacking a QB with his WR is simple: both players benefit from each completion, doubling the benefit of that play for your DraftKings fantasy football lineup. With the significance of stacking in mind, this article aims to highlight the best stacking options for Sunday’s main DraftKings DFS slate.
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5. Zach Wilson ($5,000)/Corey Davis ($4,900), New York Jets at Carolina Panthers
This stack is No. 5, but it could end up being my favorite stack of the weekend. Much will depend on how the projected ownership numbers play out. It’s tough to handicap a team like the Jets with a new coach, new offensive coordinator and rookie quarterback.
That said, Adam Gase really infected the Jets, and that alone should provide a sizable boost. The difference between a Gase offense and a Matt LaFleur one should be night and day. There should be more pre-snap motion and play-action to create confusion and open up seams in the defense.
Oh, the Panthers defense is also not good. They were 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 21st in adjusted sack rate. They did not make any sizable improvements, so it could be the perfect matchup for a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road.
During the preseason, Davis was peppered with targets and looks to be the alpha of the wide receiver group.
The Jets have a paltry implied total of 20 points, but the Panthers are at 24 — and I assume Robert Saleh plays the game to win, instead of turtling up like his predecessor.
4. Ryan Tannehill ($6,500)/A.J. Brown($7,100), Tennessee Titans vs. Arizona Cardinals
There were three teams last season that had a passing rate under 50%: Ravens, Patriots, and Titans. That said, Tannehill was still 15th in passing yards and seventh in passing touchdowns, leading one of the most efficient passing attacks in the league. With opposing defenses having to worry about Derrick Henry, play-action was so deadly and effective, creating seams in the secondary.
Brown led the Titans with 106 targets while Corey Davis was second with 92. Keep in mind Brown missed a few games last season. The target share was a healthy 22.3% for Brown, so he’s going to get fed. Julio Jones will get his, as well, but he will likely receive the Davis targets, who went to New York.
This game has a high total, and the action should be fast and furious. Do I smell a sponsorship opportunity here?
3. Matt Ryan ($6,000)/Calvin Ridley ($7,900), Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Falcons passed at the ninth-highest rate last season. Matt Ryan has attempted at least 600 passes in each of the last three seasons. Now, Dave Ragone is the new offensive coordinator and Arthur Smith is the new head coach, so the passing rate could decline. That said, the Falcons defense may not care what Smith and Ragone want to do. In addition, with Julio Jones in Tennessee, the target distribution is so condensed.
Translation: Ridley is going to eat regardless. He is THE man now. In seven games without Jones last year, Ridley caught 50 passes on 79 targets for 765 yards and three touchdowns. On the season, he garnered a 24% target share. He will likely enter the 29% stratosphere where Diggs and Hopkins reside.
As for the matchup, the Eagles were 24th in Pass Defense DVOA last season.
2. Kyler Murray ($7,600)/DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800), Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans
The 51.5 implied total for this game is the second-highest on the slate.
The Titans had one of the most efficient offenses in the game last season, and while some regression could be in order, it may not come in Week 1. The Titans had the best run-blocking unit while the Cardinals had the third-worst rated run defense unit, according to PFF. They should be able to move the ball up and down the field, and the 27.25 implied total backs that up.
The Cardinals have weapons galore in the passing game and get to feast on a Titans unit that was 30th in pass defense DVOA last year and didn’t get better in the offseason. Now, the Cardinals weren’t that pass-happy last season — they were 25th in passing play rate — but the weakness of the Titans secondary would seem to be too much to ignore. In addition, the Titans will likely put up points, forcing Murray and the Cardinals to remain aggressive.
Hopkins caught 115 passes for 1,407 yards and six touchdowns. He garnered a whopping 160 targets with a 29% target share on the team.
1. Josh Allen ($7,400)/Stefon Diggs ($7,600), Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have one of the most stout run defenses in the league. Last season, they were fifth in rush defense DVOA while PFF had them rated as the seventh-best rush defense unit. Last year, the Bills coaching staff attacked weaknesses and did not go at an opponent's strength. They were more than content spreading out a defense and letting Allen cook when the situation called for it.
The Bills passed at the 11th-highest clip, and Allen ended up attempting 572 passes for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns. The completion percentage of 69.2%, the fourth-best in the league, was a marked improvement from the 58.8% and 52.8% marks from his first two seasons. Hard work and offensive scheme helped in the development, but the addition of Diggs cannot be understated.
Matt Harmon, the creator of Reception Perception, charted Diggs with an 86.2% success rate vs. man coverage last season and has been above the 90th percentile in four straight years. Translation: he is one of the best route runners in the league.
All Diggs did in his first season with the Bills was catch 127 passes on 166 targets for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns. He is the alpha and omega of the Bills passing game (29.7% target share), the Bills deploy him all over the formation and he will have the advantage over whoever he’s lined up against.
The Bills have an implied total of 27.5 points, the third-highest on the slate. There likely won’t be many run plays called, so there’s a good chance the Allen-Diggs combo will feast and score plenty of fantasy goodies.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is arikleen) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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