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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 7

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Hey we’re back! Tuesday features a 12-game slate, which begins at 7:05 p.m. ET. If you follow my Twitter page, you know we’re rooting hard for the Mariners and Robbie Ray to win the Cy Young. Ray’s (likely) only obstacle is Gerrit Cole, who takes the mound tonight against the Blue Jays. Let’s take a look at tonight’s slate.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Blake Snell, $9,200, San Diego Padres (-365) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+280) — Snell has been surging and it couldn’t come at a better time for the Padres. They’re trying to fend off the Reds for the second Wild Card spot, holding only a one game lead. Since the beginning of August, Snell hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start, a span of six games. His 2.62 FIP and .227 wOBA during the month of August were both the best marks of the season, which was accompanied by a 13.2 K/9. Now he faces an Angels team that is essentially playing out the rest of the season with their eyes on 2022.

The Angels are most league average or below against lefties this season. They enter with a .317 wOBA, a .183 ISO, a 103 wRC+ and a 23.2% K%. The K% is one of the stats that are above league average, ranking them 14th in the league. Snell produced three games last month of at least 10 strikeouts, something he has done only five times total this season. Granted, two of those games came against the Diamondbacks but to be fair, they’re actually one of the toughest teams to strikeout against lefties with a 21.2% K%. This should be another great spot for Snell, who sees a huge jump in salary for this start, going up $1,500 from his last game. Regardless, the way he’s throwing right now, it’s justified.

Highest Projected Total

San Francisco Giants (-220; 6.5 runs) vs. Colorado Rockies (+180; 4.5 runs) 11.5 runs — We have a game at Coors Field where the over goes to die. No really, the over doesn’t seem to hit here in 2021. The under has been the more successful way to bet games at Coors Field this season, as it’s hit 56% of the time. That’s quite the remarkable number when you consider how much of an over machine Coors has been in the past. At least when these two teams have played each other this season, the over has gone 7-6. As you’ll notice, however, the Giants are not only massive favorites but have a two run difference in the projected team total.

Chi Chi Gonzalez ($5,100), our buddy, is taking the mound for the Rockies. He’s been getting wrecked almost every time he takes the mound, producing an average of 5.4 DKFP despite 22 games pitched. Pitching at home, naturally, has not been kind to Mr. Gonzalez. Through 50 1/3 innings at home, Gonzalez has a .362 wOBA and a 5.05 FIP. He’s been able to limit the damage against the Giants to just four runs through 10 innings but has allowed 11 hits in the process. Both of his games against the Giants have produced a FIP in the fours at 4.17 and 4.57. While I’m not usually going out of my way to take the over on a 6.5 team total, this Giants team has ignited offensively, scoring 16 runs over the last two games and averaging just over five over their last five games.

Weather Notes

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
James Kaprielian, .377, 6.10
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .339, 4.62
Jake Odorizzi, .328, 4.37

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Blake Snell, .214, 2.08
Drew Rasmussen, .250, 2.42
Wade Miley, .214, 2.70

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .405, 6.38
J.A. Happ, .383, 5.82
Paolo Espino, .324, 5.70

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Gerrit Cole, .229, 2.29
Logan Webb, .259, 2.86
James Kaprielian, .240, 3.28

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Max Fried, Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals, $8,600 — Fried feels underpriced in this spot. I was very surprised to see him at this price point despite averaging 24.2 DKFP over his last five starts, two of which came against this very team. Fried had struggles against the Nationals before they overhauled the team but since then, he’s tossed back-to-back gems against them. In two starts against them in August, Fried threw 12 innings allowing just two runs on 12 hits and 12 strikeouts while averaging 23.6 DKFP. He pitched as advertised in those games as well, producing a 0.83 and a 2.00 FIP in those games. We have a number of good options on this slate, don’t get me wrong but for the price you’re getting on Fried, he feels like the best overall play.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Trea Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals $4,900 — It’s quite incredible to see that Turner is currently riding a 13-game hitting streak but only had three game in double-digit fantasy points over that span. I think we make it four tonight when he faces off against J.A. Happ ($7,100). After briefly trying to fool everyone that things will turn around after joining the Cardinals, Happ reverted back to his old self against the Reds. He gave up seven runs on eight hits in just ONE inning of work, giving him -17.8 DKFP. To be fair, the red flags were there, as he was consistently posting much higher FIPs than his ERA was showing. Turner continues to have monster numbers against lefties with a .457 wOBA, a .273 ISO and a 188 wRC+.

Save Big by Drafting

Tommy La Stella, San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, $3,300 — This is a pure salary based play, as La Stella is dirt cheap despite being in Coors Field. For a team with a projected 6.5 team total, La Stella should be at or near the top of the lineup against Gonzalez. While he sits against lefties, La Stella has seen time in both the leadoff spot and second in the batting order as of late. He hasn’t contributed a ton offensively this season but he had a .387 wOBA, a .207 ISO and a 150 wRC+ against righties in 2020. He’s better than what we’ve seen.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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