Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
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Stacks
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
Patrick Mahomes ($8,100) - Travis Kelce ($8,100) - Quez Watkins ($3,500)
Sometimes, the easy decision—like taking the league’s most potent QB-TE combo against a team that just allowed 42 points five days ago—is the right one. The Eagles defense got blasted by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, allowing 9.2 yards per completion and an 80% completion rate to Dak Prescott ($6,300). The Eagles were beaten in pretty much every facet of the game last week and were particularly bad down the middle where the unheralded Dalton Schultz ($3,400)—who is primarily a blocking TE—was able to go for 6 rec., 13.3 yards per catch and 2 TDs.
It all speaks to the potential here for Travis Kelce, who enters this game off of back-to-back 100+ yard performances, but has just one TD on the season. Despite the lack of slate-breaking performances from Kelce, he still remains over 8k in salary, so there will be a stubborn group of DFS players who still refuse to play him, in what is an obvious home run spot. Pairing him and Patrick Mahomes will also likely make your lineup more unique as the two cost a combined $16,200 in salary. The Eagles play at a fast pace (12th fastest in the league so far), which should mean a few extra possessions for Mahomes, from whom there will most certainly be no letup after two straight losses.
Paying up for Mahomes with KC as a -7 favorite isn’t rocket science, but one way to soften the blow of his salary (and make your game stack more unique) is too look at the cheap receivers on Philly for a comeback play. While Quez Watkins is still playing behind Jalen Raeger, he’s also seen his snap count go up three weeks running and played on 66% of the teams snaps in Week 3. Watkins is averaging 20.3 yards per catch to Raeger’s 8.4 and could see a target bump given that Philly is projected to be behind big in this game. Watkins is far from a certainty, but mixing him with Mahomes and Kelce—who are projected for monster games—could be the low-owned stunner play you need to boost your GPP chances.
Just Missed: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,600) - Deebo Samuel ($6,500) - Chris Carson ($6,300)
Quarterback
Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football team vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,900)
Heinicke isn’t the first name you think of when talking about cheap quarterbacks with upside, but the former XFL player is coming into Week 4 having averaged right around 23.7 DKFP over his last two starts. Washington’s defense has cratered to start the year as they enter this game with the ninth-worst sack rate and are yielding over 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The result is that the Football Team has upped its speed of play so far in 2021 and right now they rank with the fifth fastest pace in the NFL—which should mean more opportunities for big games from Heinicke going forward.
Atlanta remains an ultra appealing matchup, as the Falcons have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have ceded the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs. Heinicke took a career high eight rushing attempts last week and he has the potential to breakout for a big run or two against this weak front seven. The price here remains the most attractive part, but Heinicke is in a good spot to produce a big week and could even challenge for a top-3 finish at his position, if he can find the end zone with his legs again.
Just Missed: Jalen Hurts ($6,900)
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins ($6,300)
Taylor was featured in this spot last week and he gets another chance to prove his worth in Week 4. Despite only producing 8.2 DKFP, he averaged 6.4 yards per carry in Week 3 but was given 10 carries and three targets, as the Colts chose to ride Nyheim Hines ($4,900) when they were down late in the game. The lack of snaps in those situations is irksome, but when the Colts are actually involved in a close game—or even ahead late—Taylor should bust out.
On top of his heady yards per carry average last week, he’s also fifth in the league in red zone rush attempts, but has yet to score a TD on the season. This suggests there’s some big time positive regression coming for him in the fantasy department soon and Miami makes for a good opponent to potentially cash in on some of that lurking upside. The Dolphins got hammered on the ground by third-stringer Peyton Barber last week, allowing the journeyman to go for 4.8 YPC after signing with the Raiders just last week. The spread in this game is just -1.5 (Miami), so we’re expecting a close game and teams have averaged 4.4 yards per carry vs. Miami (13th worst in the league). With his price $400 cheaper than last week and in a solid matchup, giving Taylor one more shot in Week 4 should pay off here.
Just Missed: Chase Edmonds ($5.500)
Wide Receiver
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks ($6,500)
Samuel was featured in Week 1 when he was $5,900 against Detroit. Since then, he’s recorded a game with 35.9 DKFP (against Detroit) and seen 30 targets on the season, which is 13 more than anyone else on San Francisco. Despite the elite usage numbers, he’s still being offered at just $600 more than his Week 1 salary, and at prices under other elite wide receivers—and that’s something I fully advocate taking advantage of in Week 4.
Samuel only converted five of his 10 targets last week, but was shadowed by Jaire Alexander, one of the elite corners in the game. The Seahawks secondary is still devoid of the talent needed to shutdown legit WR1s, something that was very evident last week when Justin Jefferson ($7,300) ate their lunch to the tune of 9 rec. (11 targets), 118 yards and a TD. Teams against Seattle are also throwing 38.5 times per game this season (10th highest in the league), and the 49ers enter this game with a solid 27.25 implied team total (fifth-highest on the main slate). Samuel remains undervalued here and likely won’t be as heavily owned as other wide-outs around his price, making him an excellent GPP target for Week 4.
Just Missed: Corey Davis ($5,000)
Tight End
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens ($4,300)
While paying down at TE remains a risky proposition at best, if you are going that route for Week 4, attacking the Ravens defense is a good way to go about choosing your target. Baltimore has ceded the most receptions to opposing TEs so far in 2021, and Broncos TE Noah Fant enters this game having played over 80% of the Broncos offensive snaps in 2021, which is well above his career mark. Denver has only thrown the ball 31 times per game, but opponents against Baltimore are averaging 36.6 pass attempts per game, the seventh-most in the league.
Fant has had a relatively slow start, volume-wise, but the Broncos should be looking to exploit his matchup. From a price perspective, the ownership here should remain low as most will either be looking to pay up or completely punt the position. The bust potential with Fant will always be high (as long as Denver’s defense keeps playing well) but Fant did produce four games with 50+ yards and a TD in 2020. Now that he’s attached to a decent quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater ($5,700), we should eventually see more of those performances in 2021. He makes for a nice GPP pivot and will almost certainly come without heavy ownership.
Just Missed: Anthony Firkser ($3,100)
DST
Green Bay Packers ($3,300) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Packers DST had a rough start to the season but they come into this week’s game, against a banged up Steelers squad, with some momentum. Green Bay got on the board last week with four sacks of Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,600), and get another statuesque quarterback to go after here in Ben Roethlisberger ($5,500 - questionable). Big Ben is also dealing with a rib injury and likely won’t have at least one of his top three WRs present for this one, as both Diontae Johnson ($6,200) and Juju Smith-Schuster ($5,600) are also questionable for this game.
Pittsburgh cannot run the ball this year—they rank second to last in yards per carry—and that will only mean more dropbacks for an injured Ben, who has been sacked 2.7 times per game, seventh-most in the league. Green Bay isn’t cheap, but they come in with four turnovers in their last two games and likely won’t have much ownership attached to them. Paying up for them in this monster spot is definitely warranted, if you can find enough value elsewhere.
Just missed: Dallas Cowboys ($2,600)
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