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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 30

Steve Buchanan breaks down Thursday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins Photo by David Berding/Getty Images

The finals days of the season are upon us. While Thursday is usually not a big slate, we have nine games on the schedule starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into it!

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tony Gonsolin, $8,800, Los Angeles Dodgers (-235) vs. San Diego Padres (+190) — The Dodgers were the biggest favorites on the slate last night and were able to secure the win but it wasn’t pretty. Regardless, especially an September, a win is a win. Tonight, the Dodgers will send Gonsolin to the mound, who’ll be making his 13th start of the season. As a starter, Gonsolin has posted some really good numbers, including a 3.99 FIP, a .287 wOBA, a 10.6 K/9 and a 1.0 HR/9. The only real blemish has been his command, as his 5.3 BB/9 is ugly. Luckily for him, the Padres during their September slide has one of the lowest BB% in the league at 7.8%. So while his walks have been an issue it wont be something to worry about tonight. The only downfall to Gonsolin is that he doesn’t go deep into games, so while the matchup is good, Gonsolin struggles to hit value on his high salary. To look for 26+ DKFP feels like a stretch. With that said, betting against the Padres has been a profitable venture, as they’ve gone 6-18 in September, including the current five-game losing streak they’re on.

Highest Projected Total

Boston Red Sox (-235; 6.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+190; 3.5 runs) 10 runs — This game is once again projected to be the highest scoring game on the slate. As I previewed, I liked the under a lot in this one and the final score ended up being 6-0, with the Red Sox hitting the over on the team total. They’re in a great spot to do that again tonight against Alexander Wells ($5,000), who is really struggling on the mound. He saw the Red Sox two starts ago and allowed five runs on six hits through just five innings of work, giving him 2.5 DKFP. The Red Sox have some decent numbers against lefties, which include a .327 wOBA, a .160 ISO and a 103 wRC+. Despite that, EVERYONE has been hitting Wells hard so it almost doesn’t matter at this rate. The run total for the Red Sox is extremely high at 6.5 runs but with the way Wells is pitching, he should put the Sox in a position to go over the team total. With his struggles, the Orioles are consistently forced to go to the bullpen early, which never ends well. In fact, during the month of September, the Orioles relievers have combined for a 5.17 FIP, 1.5 HR/9 and just a 6.7 K/9.

Weather Notes

The only concern for tonight looks to be the Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals with thunderstorms in the area.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Vince Velasquez, .392, 5.14
Madison Bumgarner, .277, 4.69
Nick Pivetta, .325, 4.64

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Corey Kluber, .233, 1.91
Tarik Skubal, .294, 2.47
Robbie Ray, .248, 3.10

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Alex Wells, .413, 7.55
Vince Velasquez, .336, 5.81
Tarik Skubal, .333, 5.39

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Shane Bieber, .262, 2.91
Lance McCullers Jr, .260, 3.14
Kyle Gibson, .252, 3.24

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers, $9,300 — Ryan has quickly ascended up the salary ladder with his stellar performances in four starts. Through 22 innings, Ryan has allowed six runs on 10 hits and 25 strikeouts! Now he faces another poor offense in the Tigers, who as we know are one of the most strikeout prone teams in the league. They enter this game with a 25.6% K% against righties, which currently sits as the second-highest in the league. Ryan is collecting strikeouts and getting swings-and-misses with a 12.5% swing-and-miss rate thus far. In his last stop in Triple-A with the Rays through 57 innings, that number was as high as 15.6%.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers, $4,400 — Sticking with this game, I love this spot for Donaldson against Tarik Skubal ($6,700). I mean, I’m sure he’s a great guy but all he does is give up home runs to his opponent. I mean, 32 home runs on the season? That’s a lot, my man. That gives Skubal a 1.9 HR/9 through 146 innings, which goes along with his 4.85 FIP. As for Donaldson, he’s still posting some monster power numbers against lefties, with a .281 ISO, a .382 wOBA and a 144 wRC+. He’s not overly expensive either, putting him in a great spot to return value on a $4,400 salary.

Save Big by Drafting

Eddie Rosario, Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies, $3,400 — Rosario continues to be underpriced despite hitting as well as he’s been. He comes into this game averaging 8.4 DKFP with two home runs, two doubles, a triple and four RBI over his last 10 games. It goes with what’s been a really solid month of September for him, which he’s posted a a .390 wOBA, a .315 ISO and a 142 wRC+. He’ll take on Kyle Gibson ($7,800) who is in the midst of his worst month of the season, as he’s been tagged for 22 runs on 30 hits in 27 2/3 innings.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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