Week 3 was all about cashing the teasers, with a special thanks to Justin Tucker’s leg. Not much changes in Week 4, with some attractive teaser spots. Let’s dive into some plays on DraftKings Sportsbook!
While I will have other sports betting related content throughout the week, including best bets articles for both MNF and TNF each week (along with CFB best bets), this article will be where all my best bet wagers, along with unit size live on a weekly basis.
For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow. I’ll usually come back with some additional plays as the week goes on in this article, including some player props over the weekend.
TEN -1/TB -1 (-120) — 2.5 units (Bet September 29)
The Titans won a huge game over the Colts in Week 3, and have a big opportunity in front of them the next two weeks. Not only are the 0-3 Jets on the schedule this week, but the Jaguars are on tap for Week 5. Tennessee can break the division open here with a couple of wins.
As for Tom Brady’s return to New England, the sportsbook is going to have a massive need on the Patriots’ side of this game. Not only to cover, but the book is going to need the Pats outright. I understand Bill Belichick an company will be up for this game, but this team has been dreadful so far. Outside of a win over the Jets, the Pats are 0-2 at home, losing both games as favorites. The one weakness the Buccaneers have is in the secondary, and the Patriots don’t have the weapons to attack them there. The Tampa front seven should tee off on Mac Jones, and we all know Brady will be looking to send a message on the scoreboard.
You don’t really need my analysis on why I feel the Bucs will win the game. The whole world feels this way. Bottom line is I’m more fearful of being against Brady’s needs in this game than any sportsbook’s needs. I think the squarest, most public side of the season winds up the right side.
CIN -1/KC -0.5 (-120) — 1 unit (Bet September 29)
I’m going to tie a little bit of TNF in this week, as we did with last week’s teasers. It’s a very good spot for the Bengals at home on the short week. Joe Burrow is 8-3-1 ATS as a starting QB in his NFL career. He’s only been favored once — funny enough it was hosting the Jaguars in Week 4 of 2020 when he won 33-25, covering the 1.5-point spread. Now we have the rookie coach and QB on the road for their first short week in the NFL. Not a promising spot for Jacksonville to snap its 18-game losing streak.
As for the Chiefs, they’ve been awful ATS recently. KC is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 regular season games, but it has won nine of those 12 contests outright. Bringing a two-game losing streak back to Andy Reid’s old stomping grounds in Philly, I’d expect Patrick Mahomes to carve up these Eagles defense that just surrendered 41 points on MNF.
KC -0.5/GB -0.5 (-120) — 1.5 unit (Bet September 29)
You’ll notice the Chiefs sprinkled all over these teasers in what I’m expecting to be a really strong bounce-back spot. This is the main spot I’m investing in Green Bay, because the Packers do come with issues. This is a brutal defense, specifically against the run. But Aaron Rodgers has had this offense humming two weeks in a row, and will have the comfort of Lambeau Field for this game. This is more of a Steelers fade. That offensive line is atrocious, and Ben Roethlisberger is all the way done.
KC -0.5/TB -1 (-120) — 1 unit (Bet September 29)
I want to connect Tampa with one other leg outside of Tennessee and feel the Chiefs are the appropriate team to do that with.
CIN -1/KC -0.5/TEN -1/GB -0.5/TB -1 (+400) — 0.5 units (Bet September 29)
Last week was a really good week when we hit out five-leg tease. Just going to sprinkle a bit of the winnings on another that I like and see if we can get there again.
DAL -4 (-110) — 1 unit (Bet September 29)
I’ve been saying that regression is coming for the Cowboys after their opponents left about 40 points on the table in the first two games of the season. However, that regression isn’t going to come until after Week 4. I reluctantly made a small play on them on MNF against the Eagles, and the Cowboys rolled. Now they get another good spot at home against an over-performing Panthers team. Two of Carolina’s wins are over the Jets and Texans, and sandwiched between them was a great spot against the Saints. The Panthers aren’t a bad team, but they lost massive pieces on both sides of the ball in Christian McCaffrey and JayCee Horn. I’m expecting another strong showing at home from Dallas in a down spot for Carolina.
BAL +1 (-115) — 1 unit (Bet September 29)
Similar to fading Carolina, Denver is due fora reality check, even at home. The Broncos, who are 3-0 SU/ATS, have played close to as weak of a schedule as you possibly could have thus far — Giants, Jaguars, Jets. Sure, the Ravens are riding a high off a couple close wins, but they’re also a couple bounces away from being 3-0 too, with a much more difficult schedule. The lookahead line before the season was BAL -3, so I’ll take some value on going against a Denver team that still hasn’t seen close to quality competition. The Ravens shouldn’t be underdogs.
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