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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 28

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

The final Tuesday of the regular season is upon us, so soak in this 13-game slate as much as you can. Let’s dive right into this, as we wrap up this MLB Cheat Sheet for it’s final week!

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Logan Webb, $8,900, San Francisco Giants (-295) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+230) — Webb has been a really solid addition to the Giants rotation and is having a very good second-half of the season. Through 84 1/3 innings he’s produced a .266 wOBA, a 2.61 FIP, a 0.53 HR/9 and a 9.1 K/9. Now he has the luxury of facing one of the worst offenses in the league against righties in the Diamondbacks at home. When facing righties, this D-Backs club has only been able to produce a .291 wOBA, a .134 ISO and a 78 wRC+. Webb has been nearly untouchable at home this season, so this makes this start all the more enticing. While his numbers on the road are still good, his .248 wOBA and 2.50 FIP at home are by far the best split he owns. At a very affordable $8,900 salary, Webb should be someone you’re looking to get into your lineup tonight.

Highest Projected Total

Washington Nationals (+120; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-140; 6.5 runs) 12 runs — Fading the over at Coors Field has turned into a hobby of mine, as it continues to land on the under. Last night was the fourth-straight game the under occurred at Coors, which overall has happened 57.1% of the time. Tonight is an interesting spot though, as the Rockies are favored. When they’re favored at home, the Rockies have been a moneymaking machine straight up, going 24-7 this season. When it comes to the over however, that’s only gone 13-18 when the Rockies are home favorites. With that said, Patrick Corbin ($7,600) is taking the mound so runs could be in the forecast.

Yes, Corbin is coming off a great start against the Reds in which he shut them out through 6 23 innings. However, he’s still in the midst of a horrific second-half of the season that’s seen him post a 5.79 FIP through 72 1/3 innings. The Rockies are hitting lefties at home very well, with a league leading .365 wOBA, a .197 ISO and a 102 wRC+ in these matchups. Corbin faced the Rockies once already this season and was quickly tagged for six runs on 10 hits, including two home runs in just four innings of “work.” I’m not convinced we get over 12 runs in this game but the Rockies team total of 6.5 runs, while very high, did catch my eye.

Weather Notes

Both the Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles and Miami Marlins at New York Mets could be delayed to start due to rain but should clear soon after. I would still target both games unless the forecast changes this afternoon.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Luke Weaver, .352, 6.04
Jameson Taillon, .318, 5.26
Brady Singer, .348, 4.80

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Zack Wheeler, .263, 2.60
Patrick Corbin, .266, 2.81
Hyun-Jin Ryu, .298, 2.88

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Patrick Corbin, .388, 6.27
Charlie Barnes, .369, 5.70
Bruce Zimmermann, .352, 5.40

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Logan Webb, .257, 2.51
Zack Wheeler, .254, 2.64
Chris Bassitt, .280, 2.75

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $8,900 — As laid out earlier in this article, I think this is such a great spot for Webb against the Diamondbacks. Not only is his salary extremely affordable but I see quite a few red flags with some of the names that are more expensive than him tonight. I would love to roll with Brandon Woodruff ($10,300) tonight but he’s going against a Cardinals team that has won 16 games in a row. It has to end at some point but I’m not sure I want to test my luck against a team that has everything going right. Zack Wheeler ($10,500) has pitched well against the Braves but he’s so pricey that he hasn’t been worth the price of admission. He’s only gone 3X value in two of his last 10 starts, which came against the Brewers and Mets. Webb at his salary feels like the perfect fit.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers, $4,700 — After a slow start off the IL, Buxton is back to hitting as we know and expect. over his last five games, Buxton is averaging 11.6 DKFP, which includes two home runs, two doubles, three RBI, and a stolen base. I love his matchup tonight against Tyler Alexander ($5,900) who has some very poor numbers against righties. On the season, Alexander has allowed a .349 wOBA, a 4.78 FIP, a 1.6 HR/9 and only a 7.2 K/9. Meanwhile, Buxton has smashed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .393 wOBA, a .278 ISO and a 152 wRC+. If Buxton keeps hitting like this, he won’t be under $5K for much longer.

Save Big by Drafting

C.J. Cron, Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals, $3,600 — This is such a great way to get cheap exposure to someone on a team with an implied team total of 6.5 runs. I’m honestly shocked at how low Cron’s salary is, despite posting an average of 9.8 DKFP over his last 10 games. In that span he has a six doubles, a home run, seven RBI and seven runs scored. We know the type of power he has, especially against lefties. Just how good has Cron been at home against southpaws? How about a .526 wOBA, a .455 ISO and a 220 wRC+. Yeah, Cron is a lock at first base tonight.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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