Has the NFL season really even started until we’re all forced to watch two NFC East teams we’re not quite sure are good battle for supremacy on Monday Night Football? I would argue it has not. So, if you feel the way that I feel, you’re in luck this evening, as the Philadelphia Eagles are heading south to take on the Dallas Cowboys.
Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.5M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (PHI vs DAL)
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Jalen Hurts ($16,500 CP) - Hurts in the Captain’s slot is truly the easiest call of the night. Obviously you’ll need to stack the young QB with someone considering this is a Showdown slate; however, in a vacuum, Hurts is the type of fantasy asset that can rack up DKFP independant of his team, thanks primarily to his incredible scrambling talent. In fact, the Alabama product comes into this matchup with 144 rushing yards — a total that trailed only 10 running backs through two weeks of play. Hurts is also averaging 0.73 DKFP per drop back so far in 2021, a figure that ties him for sixth in the NFL with some dude named Patrick Mahomes. Considering the Cowboys D/ST ($3,400) has surrendered the second-most DKFP per game to opposing quarterbacks and the fourth-most yards per opponent play (6.7), I like Hurts’ chances of having a ceiling performance.
Amari Cooper ($13,500 CP) - There’s a couple of reasons that I like Cooper in the Captain’s slot for Monday’s slate. First and foremost, I think he’ll carry a lower ownership than CeeDee Lamb ($9,800), with Cooper coming off an underwhelming performance against the Chargers and with the wideout having carried an injury designation for most of the week. Secondly, there’s just something about Cooper when he plays in Dallas that makes him unstoppable. Since being traded to the Cowboys, including the postseason, Cooper has played 22 games at AT&T Stadium. In those 22 contests, Cooper is averaging 6.3 receptions and 98.7 receiving yards, with that last total sitting well over 100 yards per game when Dak Prescott ($11,200) is healthy and under center for Dallas. I’d look for the former first-round pick to make a few explosive plays.
FLEX Plays
DeVonta Smith ($7,200) - It’s rare that you can grab a team’s clear No. 1 wide receiver at this much of a discount. Sure, Smith’s only played two career games in the NFL, but he currently leads all Philadelphia skill-position assets in snap share (86.1%), targets (15) and average depth of target (16.1 yards). Looks like the resume of a No. 1 option to me. The Cowboys have had a difficult time containing opposing WRs through two weeks, conceding the fourth-most DKFP and a whopping 9.7 yards per pass attempt to the position. The volume, the matchup and the price tag are all in order for Smith. What more can you ask for?
Zach Ertz ($2,200) - Maybe this is simply a visceral reaction to seeing one of the best tight ends of the past decade being priced below $3K, but I honestly believe there’s some value to be mined from Ertz on Monday. Is the 30-year-old seemingly on the last legs of his career? Of course. However, there really hasn’t been much separation in how he and Dallas Goedert ($6,600) have been utilized through two games. In fact, for the season, Ertz has run just one fewer route than Goedert, with the veteran even running 17 routes to Goedert’s 15 in last Sunday’s loss to San Francisco. Maybe this should be more about fading the South Dakota State product than praising Ertz’s viability, but at a salary this low, he wouldn’t have to do much to make an impact.
Fades
Tony Pollard ($7,600) - Allow me to be the one to tell you the Pollard love has become a little too much to bare. That’s not to suggest that the RB isn’t talented and that what he’s done through the first two games of 2021 isn’t noteworthy, but just that his presence is more of a detriment to Ezekiel Elliott ($8,400) than it is a boon to his own value. Simply put, Pollard won’t continue averaging an insane 8.0 yards per touch and when that regression hits, his 28.1% snap share won’t be nearly enough volume to sustain some sort of viability. Pollard won’t keep scoring on 100% of his red zone carries, either. Again, in a DFS capacity, this is about Elliott and the fact that his grip on a “bell cow” role is loosening. Pollard might’ve been a Showdown option when his salary was below $5K, yet priced up like this, he’s a help to no one’s lineups.
THE OUTCOME
While there’s an entirely new coaching staff in Philadelphia, it should be known that several trends are working against the Eagles this evening. Philadelphia is 2-10 ATS in its past 12 games in September, it’s 1-6 ATS in its past seven road games and the home team is 5-0 in the past five matchups between these two organizations. Dallas has also impressed me through two weeks, hanging tough with the Buccaneers and defeating a Chargers team that would go on to take down Kansas City at home in Week 3. The resume is solid and I’ll lean with Jerry’s boys on Monday.
Final Score: Dallas 30, Philadelphia 24
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.5M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (PHI vs DAL)
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