What better way to wind down the long season than with an irrelevant matchup on a day that features one of the most random schedules of the season — three one o’clock games, an 8:40 pm game and a ten o’clock game. Maybe Monday Night Football didn’t go as you expected or maybe you’re riding a hot streak and want some more action. The good news is that there’s a late Showdown slate to carry the excitement into Tuesday.
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Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Captain’s Picks
Chris Flexen ($16,200 CP) — Quietly, Flexen has led the Mariners rotation and kept this team in contention all season. He’s 13-6 with a 3.56 ERA over 169 1⁄3 innings. His advanced metrics aren’t great (4.56 xFIP), but they do not have to be. Theoretically, Flexen would struggle in neutral situations, but baseball games take place in reality not theory. The AL West does not feature potent offenses and the ballparks favor the pitchers. For Flexen, his 3.66 FIP is the best metric for predicting his performances. In his last start, he faced Oakland and struck out eight while holding the Athletics to three hits and one run over seven innings. On Aug. 24, he faced Oakland and stuck out five and allowed one run over six innings. On July 22, it was two runs allowed over 5 1⁄3 innings against Oakland. This is reality, not advanced geometric unity.
Kyle Seager ($12,300 CP) — A lefty-lefty matchup is disadvantageous, but on showdown slates, DFS players have to be different. There is no better way to differentiate than to fight the splits with your captain pick. Seager is not a consistent hitter against lefties, but he’s not much of a consistent hitter against right-handed pitchers. DFS players roster Seager for his power, his upside, and he still has it against left-handed pitching — .227 ISO. In 10 at-bats against Cole Irvin, Seager has five hits including a home run. This is a small sample size, but this is Irvin’s first full season in the Majors.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $15K Extra Inning [$5K to 1st] (OAK vs SEA)
Value Plays
Tom Murphy ($5,600) — Spoiler alert, Cole Irvin has struggled against the Mariners and almost every Seattle batter has terrorized him. Murphy has five hits in seven at-bats against the lefty. Against left-handed pitching in general, Murphy has a .349 wOBA, .212 ISO, 127 wRC+ and 41% hard contact rate.
Khris Davis ($4,000) — One player player from each team, everybody knows the rules. It would be nice to simply loaded up on Mariners and target Cole Irvin, but that’s not allowed. If DFS players are forced to pay for an Athletic, they can flirt with a relief pitcher, but figuring that out can be like splitting the atom. How about Khrush Davis? He’s a shell of his former self, which really wasn’t a great player to begin with, but the fact is that Oakland called him up and he’s been getting starts. A month ago, he was absolutely destroying the ball in Triple-A, and there might be a little bit of gas left in the tank. Chris Flexen mainly throws a fastball and a cutter, and Davis has a .550 xwOBA against fastballs and a .400 xwOBA against cutters.
Fades
Cole Irvin ($14,400 CP; $9,600) — Seattle owns him. Through four starts against the Mariners, Irvin has a 7.56 ERA across 16 2/3 innings. He’s surrendered 29 hits and 10 walks to Seattle. It’s not just Seattle that is roughing him up. Over his last nine starts, he’s allowed 10 home runs (2.0 HR/9), and three of those starts were multi home run games. Over that span, he’s carrying a 5.28 ERA and 5.86 FIP. While he hasn’t been completely blown up in some of those starts, he has does nothing to score fantasy points.
The Outcome
If Cole Irvin has not figured out Seattle by now, then why would he in his last start of the season? If Seattle has figured out Cole Irvin, then why would they suddenly forget how to hit the lefty? The obvious outcome is that Seattle once again victimizes Cole Irvin.
Final Score: Mariners 6, Athletics 3
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $15K Extra Inning [$5K to 1st] (OAK vs SEA)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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