Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Yankees vs. Red Sox Showdown on September 26

The last time these teams faced off on Sunday night, the Red Sox had a comfortable lead on top of the AL East and it looked like the Yankees were getting their golf bags ready for the offseason. Since July, a lot has changed; the Red Sox have fallen from their perch, but are still in a position to earn a Wild Card birth. The Yankees have resuscitated their season and are in possession of the final AL Wild Card spot. Sunday night could be a preview of next week’s winner-take-all one game playoff between the AL Wild Card winners.

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New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

Captain’s Picks

Eduardo Rodriguez ($15,300 CP) — Against left-handed pitching, New York has a 109 wRC+, .328 wOBA and .164 ISO. Those numbers are good enough that rostering E-Rod should seem out of the question, but the Yankees have not been very good against southpaws of late. Since Aug. 1, the Yankees have a 97 wRC+, .310 wOBA and .139 ISO against left-handed pitching. Those numbers are far less terrifying, and given that Sunday night baseball games typically lack offense, Rodriguez should be a solid play. Excluding his start against the Yankees that was shortened due to a migraine, Rodriguez has fared well in his matchups with New York — five earned runs, 12 hits and 23 strikeouts in 17 innings. This has been a very unfortunate season for Rodriguez. He has pitched much better than his numbers indicate. His ERA is 4.97, but his xFIP is 3.51. The Boston lefty is doing his part with a 27% K rate, 6.8% BB rate and a 42.8% ground ball rate, but his .359 BABIP never regressed to the mean. Hopefully on Sunday night, he finally earns the result that he deserves.

Xander Bogaerts ($15,000 CP) — Let’s have some fun with BvP tonight, but also keep real stats in our back pocket in case we need them. In 24 at-bats against Jordan Montgomery ($14,700 CP; $9,800), Bogaerts has 11 hits. Unfortunately, they’re just hits — .083 ISO. That’s par for course for LAZER Bogaerts and his 12.9-degree launch angle, but he’s clearly seeing Montgomery well, and if this Sunday night game is the typical pitcher’s duel, then a couple hits, an RBI or two and a run scored might be enough. Against left-handed pitching, Bogaerts has a .358 wOBA, .168 ISO and a 124 WRC+.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $15K Sunday Night Showdown Finale [$5K to 1st] (NYY vs BOS)

Value Plays

Joey Gallo ($7,600) — His time in pinstripes has been up and down, but his struggles should not come as a surprise. Gallo is a mercurial, up-and-down hitter based on his approach. It’s all or nothing, and for lengthy stretches he delivers nothing but strikeouts, but then he’ll unload batches of home runs. Since Sept. 10, Gallo has seven homers in 11 starts (.493 wOBA and .595 ISO), and even more striking is that he’s striking out less than 30% of the time. Gallo is 3-for-6 in his matchups with Eduardo Rodriguez, and as anyone would guess, two of the hits are home runs.

Christian Arroyo ($4,400) — In an extremely small sample size of four at-bats, Arroyo has homered twice off Jordan Montgomery. BvP is hard to trust and is even less reliable when the sample sizes are small, but Arroyo has been strong against lefties this season — .375 wOBA, .206 ISO and 135 wRC+. Offense can be in short supply on Sunday night slates, so an extra base hit from Arroyo at this price could be optimal.

Fades

Giancarlo Stanton ($14,100 CP; $9,400) — In 18 plate appearances versus Eduardo Rodriguez, Stanton has one hit and 8 strikeouts. Suffice it to say, he’s not reading the ball out of E-Rod’s hand. This fade is dangerous because Stanton is on fire at the moment. He homered in the first two games of this series and has seven home runs in the last 13 games (.450 wOBA, .451 ISO and 18 RBIs). This is a good point to reflect upon the BvP experiment taking place in this article. Maybe BvP is real and maybe it is not. Should Stanton’s current form weigh more heavily in the selection process than his stats against Rodriguez?

The Outcome

For the last six months, I’ve been writing the Sunday Night Showdown article, and too many times, games with average to below-average starting pitchers turned into pitcher’s duels. The offenses, just don’t show up. Rodriguez and Montgomery will do just enough and the offenses will be just tired enough to get this one over quickly. The home team wins the pitcher’s duel or the battle of indifferent offenses.

Final Score: Red Sox 4, Yankees 2

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $15K Sunday Night Showdown Finale [$5K to 1st] (NYY vs BOS)

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