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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 22

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Wednesday brings a big 10-game slate of baseball that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET. We do have some weather concerns to keep an eye on but otherwise, this is shaping up to be a monster slate. Let’s take a look.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Walker Buehler, $9,800, Los Angeles Dodgers (-220) at Colorado Rockies (+180) —This game has it all, the biggest favorite on the slate and the highest projected total at 10.5 runs. Coors Field saw another under last night as the game total was set at 11 runs and these teams combined for nine runs. The over has hit in only 43.7% of the games at Coors Field this season, which is one of the worst in the league. The Dodgers also continue to be a team to fade the over on when they’re on the road, hitting it just 47.2% of the time.

As far as the biggest favorite, this is the third time that Buehler will be taking on the Rockies this season. In those starts, he’s thrown 13 innings allowing four runs on on eight hits with 12 strikeouts, giving him an average of 21.6 DKFP. His advanced numbers against this team tell the same story, boasting a 2.77 FIP, and 8.3 K/9 and just an 0.7 HR/9. I’m not worried about this game being at Coors with how much the under is hitting. Aside from a bad start against the Giants earlier this month, Buehler has pitched like the potential Cy Young candidate that he is, especially in the second half. During that span, he has a .259 wOBA, a 2.86 FIP, a 9.2 K/9 and a 2.6 BB/9.

Highest Projected Total

Houston Astros (-210; 5.5 runs) at Los Angeles Angels (+175; 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — This game has the second-highest over/under on the slate, trailing the Dodgers-Rockies game. This game I would like taking the over on with the matchup of Luis Garcia ($10,000) and Janson Junk ($6,300) who has the second best name in baseball after Griffin Jax. Both the Astros and Angels are in the top five for hitting the over on the game total, with the Astros (3rd) doing so 56.6% of the time and Angels (5th) at 54.4%.

The Astros have a team total of 5.5 runs, which is tied with multiple teams for the second-highest on the slate behind the Dodgers at 6.5. Junk is making his third major league starts after pitching very well in AA baseball for the Yankees. During that tenure, he threw 65 2/3 innings allowing a 3.59 FIP (1.78 ERA) a 9.3 K/9, a 0.82 HR/9 and a 2.7 BB/9. His FIP is massively different from his 2.25 ERA at 7.41 but this sample size is extremely small. His start against the Rangers in his debut shows the biggest discrepancy, with his 2.45 ERA accompanied by a 9.98 FIP. This Astros offense is rolling right now and are averaging 7.4 runs over the last five games, which include 10 against this team last night. The bullpen took their licks last night, giving up eight of the 10 runs through 3 23 innings. While Junk has been fully stretched out with his time in Triple-A, the Angels have been cautious with him, capping him at 61 pitches in both starts and going no deeper than 4 13 innings. If that’s the case, the Astros will have almost five innings against a bullpen with a 4.40 FIP, a 4.8 BB/9 and a 68.1% strand rate in the month of September.

Weather Notes

These two games have some rain concerns but nothing overly disruptive.

Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees

For the Minnesota Twins- Chicago Cubs game, they’ll be dealing with winds they’ll be seeing winds blowing IN from left between 25-30 mph. That’s quite a number to see and could really become a burden both defensively and offensively. Something to keep in mind.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Hendricks, .372, 5.56
Vince Velasquez, .403, 5.36
Ian Anderson, .303, 4.83

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Corey Kluber, .226, 1.96
Zack Wheeler, .263, 2.62
Cole Irvin, .319, 3.31

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Vince Velasquez, .331, 5.86
Corey Kluber, .356, 5.57
Keegan Akin, .364, 5.57

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Zack Wheeler, .255, 2.70
Walker Buehler, .244, 2.96
German Marquez, .272, 3.47

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles, $10,400 — With the Phillies in desperate need of another win, they turn to the ace, Zack Wheeler. He’s been their best pitcher by far this season and has been exceptional at home. At Citizens Bank Park, he’s posted a 2.70 FIP, a .246 wOBA and a 0.91 HR/9 on the season. On paper, this matchup should be a breeze against the Orioles but for whatever reason, they’ve given the Phillies trouble in this series. Nonetheless, Wheeler should go deep into this game, as he usually does and give their bullpen some needed rest. In the month of September, Wheeler has thrown 17 2/3 innings and held opposing teams to just two runs on 14 hits with 23 strikeouts. With a 2.31 FIP to back it up, he’s my favorite play against an inept Orioles offense against righties.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, $5,800 — You likely saw the salary for Belt and thought “What on Earth? Why is Belt nearly $6k!?” A normal and warranted response. However, if you haven’t been paying attention, you’d be missing out on an unbelievable month of September that Belt is having. He’s hit six home runs, four doubles, knocked in 13 and scored 16 (!) times through 17 games. Now he faces Vince Velasquez ($7,000) who is yet another pitcher the Padres scraped up to try and give them something in the rotation. Against lefties, Velasquez has a 5.36 FIP and a .406 wOBA against them. With the way Belt is hitting, he’s a must-play for me.

Save Big by Drafting

Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, $2,800 — Lux has been great since returning to the Dodgers earlier this month. Since returning on September 10th, he’s averaging 10.5 DKFP through nine games, which includes at least 10 DKFP in six of them. It’s incredible that he’s still this cheap despite starting on a daily basis. This is an incredibly cheap way to get some exposure to the Dodgers lineup, who have a 6.5 team total on this slate.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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