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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 21

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Tuesday is a smaller than usual slate, as every team is normally featured. Instead, we have 11 games going starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at how to make some money tonight.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jordan Montgomery, $8,300, New York Yankees (-265) vs. Texas Rangers (+215) — Like we saw last night, the Yankees are the biggest favorites on the night as they continue their series against the Rangers. It wasn’t an easy win last night, after Nestor Cortes allowed three runs on five hits through just 4 13 innings but the Yankees were able to hold on. Montgomery comes into this game hot off a stellar performance against the Orioles in which he struck out 12 in 5 23 innings. Those strikeouts were a new season-high for him, surpassing the previous of 11 he had against the White Sox.

As we talked about last night, the Rangers against lefties simply aren’t a matchup that works for them. They have some of the worst offensive numbers in the league against southpaws, which include a .282 wOBA (30th), a .123 ISO (30th) a 79 wRC+ (30th) and a 21.5% K% (25th). Montgomery has great numbers on the road as well, posting a 3.81 FIP, a .307 wOBA and just a 1.08 HR/9. With the tiny numbers the Rangers have against lefties, Montgomery should be one of the more popular options on this slate, especially with an affordable $8,300 price tag.

Highest Projected Total

Los Angeles Dodgers (-210; 6.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+175; 4.5 runs) 11 runs — The Dodgers travel to Coors Field where game total overs go to waste. Coors Field has not been a place to see the over hit, as it’s done so just 44.3% of the time, which is one of the lowest in the league. For reference, Chase Field has seen the over hit 61% of the time, which tops the league. With Julio Urias ($9,900) taking the mound for the Dodgers, I most certainly like the under in this game.

Urias continues to dominate on the mound and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since July 16. Guys, July 16. Literally over two months ago was the last time he allowed more than two runs in a start. Now, of course, that came AT COORS FIELD against the Rockies but Urias has simply shut down every offense since. In fact, since that start, Urias has thrown 56 1/3 innings and has allowed just nine earned runs, has a 2.42 FIP and a .232 wOBA. Those are not numbers you want to see if you’re looking to take the over. The Rockies team total is only set at 4.5 runs in this one and I would also be inclined to take the under on that as well. The Dodgers bullpen has been great during the month of September, posting a 4.29 FIP, a 1.1 HR/9 and stranding 84.1% of baserunners.

Weather Notes

No weather concerns tonight!

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Griffin Jax, .362, 6.27
Luke Weaver, .353, 5.83
Alec Mills, .389, 5.32

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Drew Rasmussen, .271, 2.43
Jordan Montgomery, .241, 2.79
Kevin Gausman, .271, 2.87

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Griffin Jax, .363, 6.41
Marco Gonzales, .361, 5.84
Jake Woodford, .288, 4.75

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kevin Gausman, .248, 2.89
Marcus Stroman, .274, 2.99
Brandon Woodruff, .268, 3.00

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers, $8,300 — As discussed earlier, this is such a great spot for Montgomery against a club that simply cannot hit lefties. His salary at $8,300 makes him that much more appealing when you put it next to this matchup. While I don’t believe he’ll go out and post a strikeout total in the double-digits as he did in his last start, but this Rangers team doesn’t pose much of a threat.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, $5,400 — Love this matchup for the Braves going against Luke Weaver ($7,800). On this slate, Weaver has some of the worst numbers against lefties, posting a 5.83 FIP, a .353 wOBA and a 2.1 HR/9. Weaver missed a ton of time this year and recently came back into the rotation, where he’s been saddled with a 4.03 FIP, a 1.2 HR/9 and only a 6.6 K/9 through 15 innings this month. Meanwhile, Freeman has been having a huge month of September with a .412 wOBA, a .209 ISO and a 157 wRC+.

Save Big by Drafting

Matt Duffy, Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins, $2,000 — You know whose swinging at hot bat right now? Matt Duffy. He’s having a crazy month of September, In 14 games this month he’s posted a .382 wOBA, a .264 ISO (!) and a 139 wRC+. He has four home runs, two doubles and 11 RBI this month, all of which have surpassed anything he’s done this season. He’s seen some games atop of the Cubs order lately as well, which would make his $2,000 salary even more insane. Going up against Griffin Jax ($6,400), who literally has the worst splits against both sides of the plate, this is a no-brainer.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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