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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 2

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 2 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Week 1 was the week of underdogs. Nine underdogs won outright last week, which is amazing for any of you that chased after the plus money odds. Week 2 brings another massive week of betting and DFS, which begins at 1:00 p.m. ET with a 13-game slate. Let’s get you set for all the angles in Week 2.

Also, you have to follow me on Twitter or else you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-800; -12.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (+550)

Betting trends:
Buccaneers 2020 home record: 6-3
Buccaneers 2020 home record when favored: 4-2
Buccaneers 2020 ATS record: 12-8
Buccaneers 2020 ATS record when favored: 7-7

Falcons 2020 road record: 2-6
Falcons 2020 road record as underdogs: 2-6
Falcons 2020 ATS record: 7-9
Falcons 2020 ATS record as underdogs: 6-5

As expected, the Falcons gave up a lot of points in Week 1 in the 32-6 loss to the Eagles. This secondary is going to be one to pick on each and every week and it’s one of the many reasons the Buccaneers are such massive favorites in Week 2. Jalen Hurts had a 90% adjusted completion percentage against them, throwing for 264 yards, 7.5 YPA and three touchdowns. The Falcons hardly put any pressure on him either, doing so on just 23.1% of his 39 total dropbacks. Now they face one of the better offensive lines in the league with the Buccaneers? Yeah, Tom Brady ($6,900) is going to pick these defense apart.

The Buccaneers enter this game having scored at LEAST 30 points in eight straight games, which ironically started back in Week 15 in 2020 against this Falcons team. The DraftKings Sportsbook has the Buccaneers team total at 32.5, with both the over and under drawing a line of -115. When it comes to DFS, this team is tough to figure out with how much Brady spreads the ball around. Last week, Chris Godwin ($6,600) saw the most with 13, followed by Rob Gronkowski ($4,700) with eight, Antonio Brown ($6,000) with seven, and Mike Evans ($6,100) with six. Also in the mix was Leonard Fournette ($5,100) with seven and Giovani Bernard ($4,000) with three. Personally, I think the most glaring line was that of Evans, who only caught 3-of-6 targets for 24 yards. Evans is one of Brady’s favorite red zone targets and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him look his way more in Week 2. Evan should draw CB Fabian Moreau in coverage, who he has a five inch heigh advantage over. Last season in coverage with the Football Team, Moreau was only targeted against 14 times but allowed eight receptions for an average of 16.5 YPR.

Other notable favorites: Cleveland Browns (-575; -12.5) vs. Houston Texans (+410), Denver Broncos (-305; -6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+220)

Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Dallas Cowboys (+165; -6) at Los Angeles Chargers (-195; -3.5) Over/Under: 55

Betting trends:
Cowboys 2020 road record: 6-10
Cowboys 2020 road record when underdogs: 1-4
Cowboys 2020 Over/Under record: 9-7
Cowboys 2020 Over/Under record when underdogs: 5-3

Chargers 2020 home record: 4-4
Chargers 2020 home record as favorites: 4-2
Chargers 2020 Over/Under record: 9-7
Chargers 2020 Over/Under record as favorites: 4-5

The game with the highest over/under belongs to the Cowboys and Chargers, with this being the second-straight road game for Dem ‘Boyz. The Cowboys already lost a couple of significant names to injury, as WR Michael Gallup was placed on IR and star DE DeMarcus Lawrence has a broken foot. Lawrence generated five quarterback pressures in Week 1 and will be sorely missed in this matchup. Last season when Justin Herbert ($6,700) was working with a clean pocket, he completed 71.1% of his pass attempts (77.7% adjusted completion percentage), 7.1 YPA and 18 of his 31 touchdowns. Those aren’t numbers you want to see when you have one of the worst secondaries in the league like the Cowboys do. They are, however, numbers you DO want to see if you’re taking the over. With one of the worst secondaries in the league, Herbert should not only have ample time to throw but do so successfully. This, like last season, constantly put the Cowboys behind and forcing them to throw, which makes them an elite DFS option and a team to target the over on game totals.

Also working in the favor of the over is the sheer presence of Dak Prescott ($6,800). That man picked up right where he left off last season, throwing the ball 58 times (!) while completing 42 of them for 403 yards. It feels as if regardless of the secondary, Prescott makes the throws he needs. He’ll be down a man in Gallup but Cedrick Wilson ($3,100) stepped in last week and caught all three of his targets 24 yards. Noah Brown ($3,000) could also be activated for this game. Amari Cooper ($6,800) and CeeDee Lamb ($6,400) combined for 31 target last week, which 53% of the throws Prescott made. Neither of them have a matchup you’ll be looking to fade and with the sheer volume they’ll receive, are extremely fantasy relevant.

Other notable totals: Atlanta Falcons (+550) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-800; -12.5) O/U 52, Tennessee Titans (+225) at Seattle Seahawks (-280; -6) O/U 54

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NFL Week 2 Betting Splits

These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Last Updated: Sunday, September 19th 8:45 a.m. ET

NFL Betting Trends

This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under. For the first two weeks, this will feature 2020 records. At the beginning of Week 3, we’ll switch over to the 2021 record.

Teams Against the Spread:

Best Teams ATS

Team Record ATS +/-
Team Record ATS +/-
Dallas Cowboys 12-4 5.1
Green Bay Packers 12-4 1.3
New England Patriots 10-6 7.5
Tennessee Titans 10-6 3.6
Arizona Cardinals 10-6 2.4

Worst Teams ATS

Team Record ATS +/-
Team Record ATS +/-
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12 -7.6
Carolina Panthers 5-11 -2.8
Chicago Bears 6-10 -0.6
New York Jets 6-10 -4.3
New York Giants 6-10 -2.5

Teams Over/Under Records:

Best Team Over Records

Team Over Record Total +/-
Team Over Record Total +/-
New York Jets 10-6 4.4
Minnesota Vikings 10-6 1.4
Los Angeles Rams 8-7-1 -0.8
Buffalo Bills 8-8 -1.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8 0.4

Worst Team Over Records

Team Over Record Total +/-
Team Over Record Total +/-
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 -3.8
Seattle Seahawks 5-10-1 -3.3
New York Giants 5-10-1 -4.5
Atlanta Falcons 6-10 -2.1
New Orleans Saints 6-10 -2.8

Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings, $8,200 — Last week I went with a cheap but valuable QB/WR stack with Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith. They combined for 47.86 DKFP as they showed how well they gelled together. This week, I’m going the more expensive route, starting with Murray against the Vikings. We saw Joe Burrow ($5,800) find plenty success against them last week, completing 20-27 pass attempts for 261 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 9.7 YPA and didn’t face much pressure. Now we have the extremely mobile Murray, who has his own set of weapons to throw to. The Vikings will attempt to slow this game down but when Murray has the ball, he makes the plays. Against the Titans last week, Murray completed 65.6% of his 32 pass attempts for 289 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing in another.

Player props for Kyler Murray on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Passing Yards: 274.5
Passing TDs: 1.5
Pass + Rush Yards: 315.5
Pass attempts: 35.5

Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings, $8,000 — Hopkins is of course, the preferred option for Murray. Last week he say eight targets of which he caught six for 83 yards and two touchdowns and 26.3 DKFP. Hopkins primarily lines up on the left side of the field, which means he’ll be seeing a lot of former teammate CB Patrick Peterson in coverage. Last season with the Cardinals, Peterson was targeted against 75 times and allowed 50 receptions (66.7%) for an average of 13.5 YPR and five touchdowns scored. The Vikings simply won’t have an answer for Hopkins in this game and despite being the most expensive receiver on this slate, he has one of the safer floors amongst them.

Player props for DeAndre Hopkins on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Receptions: 7.5
Receiving Yards: 86.5
Longest Receptions: 26.5

Top Running Back To Consider

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans, $7,800 — Chubb and the Browns are some of the biggest favorites on the board this week in a home matchup against the Texans. The Browns, as of Thursday afternoon, are -12.5 favorites against this Texans team. Throughout his career, Chubb has performed very when the Browns are home favorites, exceeding his projected fantasy output by 2.79 points (h/t Fantasy Labs) through the course of 13 instances. Last season, this Texans defense was one that players ran all over, as they allowed the most rushing yards (2358) and the most rushing touchdowns in the league (21). While the Jaguars couldn’t get much going last week, in the 14 attempts they made, they did average just under 5.0 YPC. With someone like Chubb, he should be rumbling down the field and getting his opportunities in the red zone. Last week, Chubb handled six of the 10 total rushes the Browns took in the red zone against the Chiefs.

Player props for Alvin Kamara on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Rushing Yards: 83.5
Receiving Yards: 12.5
Receptions: 1.5
Rush + Receiving Yards: 101.5
Rushing Attempts: 17.5

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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