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MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 15

Garion Thorne gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s MLB betting card.

It finally happened. We hit a few totals by the skin of our teeth, but for the first time in two months, we produced a perfect 3-0 week on article plays last Wednesday. For the season, that brings us to 42-20, a win rate of 67.7%. I’m sure regression will hit at some point, but for the sake of our bankrolls, let’s hope that’s in 2022.

Until then, here are three more wagers for tonight’s baseball slate on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins

Under 9 (+100)

If we just want to cut right to the chase, I don’t trust either of these teams to score runs. Since the beginning of September, Cleveland is dead-last in baseball in wOBA (.263) and wRC+ (62), while Minnesota is also one of six lineups within that span with a wOBA below .300. The under has hit five of the last six times these two clubs have played, which makes sense because the under has hit seven of the last eight times Cleveland has faced an opponent below the .500 mark. In the same vein, the over has only hit in five of the Twins’ past 18 contests overall. Again, these two teams struggle to score runs.

The elephant in the room is Griffin Jax. After a run of respectable outings to start August, Jax has posted a 10.18 ERA and a 7.54 FIP over his last four appearances. He is solely the reason that the under in tonight’s game is at even-money. Still, I’d like to think his presence is off-set by Cal Quantrill, who has registered a sterling 1.97 ERA dating back to July 17. That run includes his most recent outing on Sept. 9 — a start against this same Minnesota lineup where Quantrill pitched 7.2 innings of one-run baseball. Even with Jax taking the mound, I’d expect runs to be at a premium.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)

While I do respect that the Dodgers have one of baseball’s best lineups, they’re not quite the same team that possessed the lowest strikeout rate in the National League last season. In fact, Los Angeles has been far more middle-of-the-pack in 2021, with its 22.9% strikeout rate and its 22.8% strikeout rate specifically against right-handed pitching both ranking 19th in all of baseball. They’re good, but the Dodgers aren’t perfect.

I also respect that Merrill Kelly isn’t exactly someone who most would classify as a “strikeout pitcher” in this era of the game, as the veteran’s personal strikeout rate this season doesn’t even crest 20%. However, if there’s one thing that Kelly does do, it’s work deep into his starts. To wit, the 32-year-old has thrown at least five innings in 22 of his 24 appearances, even surviving into the seventh inning in eight of his last 17 outings. Because of that volume, Kelly just tends to hit this over through sheer stamina. He’s actually only failed to register at least four strikeouts in a game five times in 2021 and, for whatever reason, his strikeout rate in his three contests versus Los Angeles is an eye-popping 28.4%. At plus-money, this prop is difficult to ignore.

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New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

Yankees -1.5 (-115)

You basically had to pay more juice to bet on the Yankees’ run line on Tuesday than you did to bet any other favorite on the moneyline. While a lot of that was due to the presence of Gerrit Cole, it’s worth noting that he’s far from the only pitcher that can move a line. In fact, that’s exactly what John Means is doing on Wednesday.

How is it possible that we can bet a -115 run line against a team that’s been outscored 40-11 in their past three games? Well, for some reason, people sort of think Means is good. I’m here to tell you he’s not. Dating back to May 19 — just two weeks after the left-hander’s no-hitter — Means has pitched to a 5.71 FIP across 14 starts and 74.1 innings. Within that span, he’s conceded a whopping 2.4 home runs per nine to opponents while only posting a 19.5% strikeout rate. Does that sound like the type of pitcher that’s going to shut down the Yankees in the midst of a Wild Card push? Give me New York by a touchdown.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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