A solid Week 1 is in the books, but it’s never too early to get going on our Week 2 card on DraftKings Sportsbook!
While I will have other sports betting related content throughout the week, including best bets articles for both MNF and TNF each week (along with CFB best bets), this article will be where all my best bet wagers, along with unit size live on a weekly basis.
For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow. I’ll usually come back with some additional plays as the week goes on in this article, including some player props over the weekend.
Between article plays and Twitter plays we went 8-6 for +3.7-units to start the season. Let’s look to add more profit in Week 2.
NFL Week 2 early plays @julianedlow (SF -7) and @SBuchanan24 (MIA +2.5) both cashed their early best bets given out on the pod for Week 1.— Unreasonable Odds Podcast (@UnreasonableOdd) September 15, 2021
Now Julian gives out his best bet for Week 2, while Steve gets greedy and tries to add to it.
Full pod: https://t.co/foFYe8A98E pic.twitter.com/6cI4sA9e2j
NE/DEN Moneyline Parlay (-109) — 3 units (Bet September 14)
The Patriots looked pretty good in their opener against the Dolphins, but turnovers and penalties proved to be too much. If they can clean those things up for a cushy matchup against the Jets, they shouldn’t have too much trouble getting Mac Jones his first win in the NFL. The Jets didn’t look good in the secondary against the Panthers, which should give New England more chances to move the ball downfield. The Pats looked good on the ground against Miami, and should be able to carry that momentum into this matchup. Zach Wilson will have to face a much tougher defense than he did in his debut in Week 1, and he’ll do so without his franchise offensive lineman. I like the Pats to bounce-back here.
First thing’s first, while the lookahead line was Broncos -2.5 for this Week 2 matchup in Jacksonville, I have no problem if you want to lay the -6 in this spot. We should mention that Teddy Bridgewater improved to an insane 22-3 ATS on the road in his career in Week 1, but this is all about the Jaguars. Jacksonville somehow was a three-point road favorite in Week 1, despite coming into the game on a 15-game losing streak and starting a rookie QB and rookie head coach. Trevor Lawrence did not look ready for the NFL, and his offensive line didn’t do him any favors. But instead of facing the Texans, this time the Jags will be up against an elite Denver pass rush and defense. Teddy Covers will take care of the ball and get the Broncos out to a 2-0 start.
LAR -3.5 (-110) — 1.5 units (Bet September 14)
Betting the Rams might wind up a public side, and it also looks like buying into some of the Week 1 overreaction. It doesn’t hurt that the Rams looked great on SNF, but I’m also not going to give them credit for a 20-point home win over the helpless Bears. But this upgraded roster with the addition of Matt Stafford is considered a better team than the Seahawks, particularly on defense. Seattle marched into Indy and earned a 28-16 victory in Week 1, and it wasn’t even as close as the score indicated.
I expect the Rams to put on a similar performance on offense in Week 2, while being sharper than the Seahawks on the defensive side. Even a strong offensive line like the Indy’s should struggle with the Rams’ defensive line. The Colts have all the pieces on paper, but I thought they might get off to a slow start with all the injuries in training camp, even with some of the key players back in time to play. I think that slow start drags into Week 2.
KC -3.5 (-110) — 1.5 units (Bet September 14)
UPDATE (9/18): I’ve hedged out with BAL +3.5 (September 18).
The ticket count here being all on KC with no line movement is a huge red flag (much like GB vs. NO in Week 1, which was a loser for me). I also don’t like the official assignment for this game. Somehow, BAL will keep this close. I’ll just eat the 0.15U loss and hope to bet the Chiefs live on the ML if they go down.
Want to hear a cool stat? The Chiefs are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last nine regular season games. They also happen to be 8-1 straight up in those games. It’s been a pretty consistent trend going back to the middle of last season of Patrick Mahomes and company being able to pull out the victory, but not cover the number. I’ll say that changes on SNF in Week 2.
Mahomes has played well against Baltimore in his career, including a 14-point win over the Ravens last season. But this is a Ravens fade. Sure, Baltimore can turn things around this season. I don’t want to completely write them off, but like the Colts, this is a team battling a ton of early injuries. The RB position gets the headlines, and while the Ravens could use some extra bodies in the backfield, the lack of depth on the offensive line and WR showed up the most in Week 1. The Ravens are on a short week off a tough OT loss in Las Vegas. I like the Chiefs to be able to get pressure on Lamar Jackson, and with unfamiliar faces getting reps on offense, that should mean more mistakes for the Ravens. On the other end, Baltimore’s defense should really struggle to stop the Travis Kelce/Tyreek Hill combo.
The lookahead line here was just one-point, and -2.5 was available before the Ravens played a game. But even at a worse number, I think this is a good play with the advantage of seeing all the holes Baltimore has right now.
WAS -3 (-115) — 1 unit (Bet September 15)
You can find analysis for this play in my TNF article.
CAR +3.5 (-120) — 1.5 units (Bet September 18)
I was fortunate enough to grab this one at +4.5 earlier in the week, so I avoided writing it up at +3. But with a fair enough price to get the hook on the alternate line, I really like getting the divisional home dog here. We’re seeing some overreaction to the Saints’ stomping of the Packers in Week 1, when the lookahead line for this game was a pick.
Yes, the Saints looked great, but the Packers were nowhere near ready for that game. Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes came on less than 150 yards! That’s not happening again. I believe we see some regression from New Orleans here, and Carolina gets this one outright. But for betting it, I want the field goal and the hook.
LAC -3 (-105) — 1.5 units (Bet September 18)
The Chargers quietly got the road win as a dog in Washington against a team that lost its QB in game and did not look good on Thursday hosting the Giants. I think this gives us a nice buy-low spot on the Chargers at home against a Cowboys squad that wasn’t nearly as good as the scoreboard indicated in Tampa.
I do want to give Dak Prescott props, as he looked tremendous against the Bucs in his return. But the Tampa secondary really isn’t anything special, and now Dallas has to face a very good LAC secondary that’s led by a shutdown defender in Derwin James. Amari Cooper put up huge numbers in Tampa, and James has the potential to take him out of this game. Michael Gallup will also be out for Dallas, and there’s more turnover on the offensive line.
The final straw for me was DeMarcus Lawrence breaking his foot this week, taking away the most important piece of the Cowboys defense. Silly turnovers for the Bucs in their own territory, and then late at the goal line were legitimately a 16-21 point swing in that opener against the Cowboys. They won’t get that dumb luck again.
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