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The Yankees and Mets have two of the best pitching staffs in baseball, but that won’t be on display to begin the evening. Carlos Carrasco has been terrible since returning from the IL and Andrew Heaney’s tenure in New York may run out before this game even begins. Sunday Night games have routinely lacked offense all season long, but that should change tonight.
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New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Captain’s Picks
Aaron Judge ($15,000 CP) — Carlos Carrasco’s velocity was down again in his last start and he allowed a 50% hard contact rate. Fortunately for him, he was facing the Marlins in Miami and only allowed one run over five innings. If his fastball is lacking speed against the Yankees, he’ll have trouble getting out of the first — which has been a common problem for Carrasco this season. Making matters worse is that Carrasco has struggled with right-handed batters — .393 wOBA and a .277 ISO — and he’ll face a couple really good right-handed batters right out of the gate. Judge has cooled off after a red-hot August (.440 wOBA and a .273 ISO), but a matchup against Carrasco on Sunday night is the perfect spot to heat back up.
Pete Alonso ($15,300 CP) — It will be difficult for Alonso to replicate his rookie season (53 home runs, 103 runs and 120 RBIs), but he’s making a run at in September. This month, Alonso has a .482 wOBA, .450 ISO and 209 wRC+. Against left-handed pitching this season, he has a .385 wOBA, .345 ISO and a 147 wRC+. The Yankees are projected to start notorious fly ball pitcher, Andrew Heaney ($15,600 CP; $10,400). In Los Angeles, Heaney struggled with the long ball (1.5 HR/9), but that’s only gotten worse against AL East lineups in hitter-friendly AL East ball parks (3.3 HR/9).
EDITOR’S NOTE: Clarke Schmidt will start in tonight’s game vs. the Mets.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $10K Sunday Night Showdown [$2K to 1st] (NYY vs NYM)
Value Plays
EDITOR’S NOTE: Yankees 1B Luke Voit is not in the lineup tonight vs. the Mets.
Luke Voit ($6,200) — In the AL parks with the DH, Voit is struggling to find playing time, so there is no guarantee that he’ll be in the lineup tonight. However, in the limited amount of at-bats he’s received recently, Voit has continued to prove that he deserves to be in the lineup everyday — pinch hit home run on Thursday and another hit off the bench on Friday. Since his first return from the IL (June 22), Voit has a .367 wOBA, .224 ISO and 135 wRC+ in 164 plate appearances.
Kevin Pillar ($6,400) — He is one of the Mets better hitters against left-handed pitching and he is cheap. Since Aug. 1, Pillar has a .367 wOBA, .370 ISO and 135 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. The sample size is small — 29 plate appearances — but he’s a value bat in showdown slate. Clarke Schmidt is now scheduled to start for the Yankees, but he has only throw 15 innings at Triple-A and 27 innings total this season. It’s very likely that the lefty, Andrew Heaney, enters this game in long relief.
Fades
Carlos Carrasco ($15,900 CP; $10,600) — He’s not washed up, but Carrasco is not going to return to previous form this season. Next season is a different story, but right now and against the Yankees, it doesn’t look good. Carrasco is getting by because he is a good pitcher, but he does not have elite stuff and that’s what will be required to retire Yankees. There is simply no way that Carrasco navigates this lineup multiple times on Sunday night.
The Outcome
The Yankees can’t mess around, so their starter will have a much shorter leash. An early bullpen game will hurt later in the week, but it will limit the Mets’ offense. Carrasco will stick around long enough to dig a hole that the Mets can’t get out of.
Final Score: Yankees 6, Mets 4
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