Week 1 started with an offensive clinic. Thursday night’s contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers totaled 60 points, with Tom Brady and Dak Prescott passing for a combined 782 yards and seven touchdowns. Sunday night’s primetime game between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams may not be as high-powered on offense, and one team may look different at quarterback at some point during the season, but let’s break down the SNF matchup from a Showdown perspective.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Matthew Stafford ($17,400 CP) - You most likely had success if you captained either Tom Brady or Dak Prescott on Thursday night, and both were some of the more expensive players on the slate. Similarly, rostering Stafford may provide fruitful returns Sunday evening at Sofi Stadium. The Brady/Prescott comparison to Stafford is less apples to apples and more like apples to Fuji apples. Stafford is at the helm of the most talented offensive unit he’s had in his career, and we’re two years removed from a 2019 campaign in which he was fourth in average fantasy points per game (21.4) and threw for 19 touchdowns in eight contests with the Detroit Lions. With no previous knowledge of which receiver he’s going to hone in on, I’d instead captain the captain of the Rams’ offense and take a wait-and-see approach with the receivers.
Darrell Henderson ($11,400 CP) - His potential usage Sunday night and throughout the season is a mystery, but with the Rams as eight-point favorites at home, he could be in line for a decent amount of work. Henderson’s dealt with injuries in the past, and he could easily be in a split with new teammate Sony Michel ($7,200 CP; $4,800). Still, Henderson’s familiarity with McVay’s playbook and a matchup with a Chicago Bears defense which will be without nose tackle Eddie Goldman (knee/ankle) should provide more running lanes up the middle. Last season, Henderson scored 20-plus points in three of the first five games of the season. The Bears also spent their first five picks on the offensive side of the ball and could struggle to stop the run late in the game.
FLEX Plays
David Montgomery ($8,400) - I have the Rams DST ($6,400) projected to be a top-five total defense again this year, especially against the pass. They finished first in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 4.6 yards per play and the lowest touchdown percentage to opposing quarterbacks (3.1%), which doesn’t bode well for Chicago’s “QB1.” The Los Angeles defense was equally impressive defending the run last season, ranking third in opposing yards per attempt. Still, volume can be the saving grace when the matchup is bad, and Damien Williams ($2,200) shouldn’t be a factor. With Tarik Cohen on IR, Monty could get all the work, especially when Andy Dalton ($9,800) has to get rid of it early against this ferocious Rams D-line.
DeSean Jackson ($1,400) - Is it Week 1? Is Jackson healthy? Is he in a high-performance offense with a quarterback who can throw it deep? If the answer to these questions is yes, which it is, he is worth rostering. Jackson went for five receptions, 146 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints back in 2018. The next season he went off for eight receptions, 154 yards and two touchdowns against Washington. Jackson and Sean McVay reunite after spending time together in Washington, and it won’t take much for Jackson to return more than enough value at his price, especially if he does anything near what he did in 2018 and 2019. If Jackson’s projected ownership gets too high, consider the Bears DST ($4,400). They’re more expensive than Jackson, but in Stafford’s last four seasons in Detroit in which he played all 16 games, he was sacked an average of 40.5 times — that’s good for 2.5 per game. The Rams’ offensive line may also struggle against Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn on the edges.
Fades
Allen Robinson ($10,200) - Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris mentioned that defensive back Jalen Ramsey won’t be shadowing Robinson the entire game. I’m calling bull. Sure, Robinson could be covered by some other defensive backs, but Ramsey should be following him for the majority of the night. The Bears faced the Rams in Week 7 last season and Ramsey gave up one big catch for 42 yards to Robinson, who finished with a total of four catches for 70 yards. Still, this has less to do with Robinson’s ability and more to do with his second-highest price tag and Dalton's inability to lead this offense against one of the best defenses in the league.
THE OUTCOME
Chicago’s path to victory — if there is one — is going to be ball control and keeping it away from the Rams’ offense. The Rams are heavily favored in their first game at Sofi Stadium, and I don’t see how the Bears can compete on either side of the ball, especially with their inability to be dynamic on offense. The pace of play should be on the slower side, but it should still be interesting to see how Stafford controls this offense. The Rams should win this one easy at home.
Final Score: Los Angeles Rams 30, Chicago Bears 17
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (CHI vs LAR)
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