Both Cincinnati and Atlanta are clicking on all cylinders offensively and have favorable matchups against right-handed pitchers on Friday. Here’s how I’m backing them on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Braves over 4.5 runs -130
The Nationals didn’t exactly have an ideal ending to their series vs. Philadelphia — a four-game series in which the Phillies scored seven-plus runs three times. Of course, this includes Thursday’s 7-6 finish where Washington’s bullpen gave up four runs in the ninth.
But before the Braves get to the Nationals relievers, they’ll get a look at Eric Fedde. He had a strong showing last time out, but against a Cubs lineup that had just been stripped of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. Hard to imagine Fedde, who posted an 8.02 ERA in July, will be able to navigate Atlanta’s lineup as easily. The Braves are top six in OPS, ISO and wOBA this season, and they’ve been as tough as ever on righties over the last two weeks.
Atlanta just put up six-plus in each of their three games vs. the Cardinals after they rocked Corbin Burnes for five runs in four innings and Brandon Woodruff for three over 5 1/3 the series prior. Safe to say Fedde isn’t exactly on the same level as those Milwaukee All-Stars.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Reds over 5.5 runs -105
Cincinnati’s bats went quiet after the second inning Thursday, but the damage was already done. While that showing doesn’t mean the Reds will hit the over on their Friday game run total on DraftKings Sportsbook in one inning again, it proves this group isn’t slowing down.
Thursday’s seven-run effort came without a single contribution from Jesse Winker, who has been one of the toughest hitters on right-handed pitchers this season — and he gets a shot at another one Friday in JT Brubaker. The Pittsburgh righty was tough on Cincinnati earlier in the season, but Brubaker was a much different pitcher then.
Brubaker finished July with a 6.57 ERA, giving up eight home runs over 24 2/3 in five starts. He did better his last time out, but that came against a Phillies lineup that’s middling against righties, whether you look from a full-season scope or just recently.
The Reds, meanwhile, just tagged Wil Crowe and remain one of the top four most unforgiving offenses against righties.
Also, Pittsburgh’s bullpen had a clean night on Thursday. They’re not good enough where anyone should expect that in back-to-back nights against such a tough lineup.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Corbin Burnes over 8.5 strikeouts +125
The Giants have hit right-handed pitching well for much of this season, but they also have the eighth-worst strikeout rate against right-handers this season. Over the last two weeks, San Francisco is striking out more frequently against righties than anyone.
Looking at the right-handed starters the Giants have seen since the start of July, they all put up big strikeout numbers. Walker Buehler and Wil Crowe were the only ones to strike out nine in their respective starts, but Taylor Widener had seven over 4 1/3 and Eric Fedde had the same output over five frames. None of those four pitchers, or any of the other righty starters who’ve faced San Francisco since July 1, has as good of a strikeout rate as Burnes.
And with Burnes’ last outing not going so well, I fully expect him to come back out and dominate on Friday.
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