Wednesday brings us an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We’re going to discuss, which you knew already. Why else would you be here?
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jameson Taillon $10,200, New York Yankees (-265) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+215) — Taillon is coming off a stellar month of July. That pitcher the Yankees saw all throughout the month, who allowed just six runs (four earned) with a 3.54 FIP through 31 innings, was the man they’ve been hoping for. Now he’ll face the Orioles for the second time this season after previously going seven innings, allowing two runs on three hits with seven strikeouts in 4 2⁄3 innings. The cherry on top is how well Taillon has pitched at Yankee Stadium this season as well, boasting a .306 wOBA and a 4.54 FIP.
The Orioles don’t find much success as away underdogs, as one would imagine, going 20-35. As I’ve mentioned a billion times in these articles, the Orioles are not a team I give much attention if they’re facing a righty. They are a much better hitting club against lefties. When they face right-handed pitching, they have just an 87 wRC+ (23rd), a .157 ISO (18th) and a .296 wOBA (27th). There is not much to like about the Orioles in this spot, as the line would indicate.
Highest Projected Total
Chicago Cubs (+140; 4.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-160; 5.5 runs) 11 runs — It looks as if I simply didn’t update this section from yesterday but this game, once again, has the highest projected total of 11 runs. It’s still maddening to see the Rockies pitching Jon Gray ($7,200) as he would have been a vital trade piece to help rebuild this disorganized franchise. Nonetheless, he’ll be pitching at home where he’s done extremely well this season. Through 57 1/3 innings at home, Gray has a .260 wOBA, a 4.59 FIP and just a 1.2 HR/9. Pretty damn good for Coors Field. The Rockies have also been one of the best teams in all of baseball to bet on when favored at home, going an incredible 17-4 in this scenario.
Despite the over hitting (with ease) yesterday, it’s still been a struggle at Coors Field. The over is now 23-29-2, which is one of the worst in the league for a home team. At least with the way Gray has pitched, I’m not going out of my way to take the over in this game (full disclosure, I said this last night and these teams combined for 19 runs, blowing past the over/under of 11). I would likely be more inclined to go over the 5.5 run total for the Rockies than taking the over on the game.
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Weather Notes
No weather concerns tonight!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
JC Mejia, .437, 7.76
Alec Mills, .364, 5.36
Eduardo Rodriguez, .353, 4.04
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Max Scherzer, .249, 3.33
Paolo Espino .273, 3.03
Lucas Giolito, .283, 3.11
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Chase Anderson, .437, 4.91
J.A. Happ, .397, 5.93
Matt Harvey, .376, 4.21
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kevin Gausman, .199, 2.70
Shohei Ohtani, .231, 2.29
Zach Thompson, .237, 3.12
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, $9,500 — We have a lot to like about Ohtani taking the mound against the Rangers tonight. First and foremost, he has struck out 16 of them through nine innings pitched in two starts already. That gives him a 34.2% K% in those starts. Second, Ohtani has some of the best numbers on this slate against righties with a .231 wOBA and a 2.29 FIP. This Rangers lineup is very right-handed heavy after the trade of Joey Gallo. With his past success and the abundance of righties they’ll roll out, I think Ohtani is in a great spot to be one of the best pitchers on this slate.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, $5,800 — Devers and the Red Sox will continue their series against the Tigers tonight in Detroit. They’ll be taking on Casey Mize ($8,800) who I love to target against with left-handed bats. Mize really struggles against them and on the season has a .346 wOBA, a 5.74 FIP and 12 of the 16 home runs he’s given up on the season. Some of Devers best power numbers come in this exact matchup, facing a righty away from Fenway Park. In those matchups, he has a .408 wOBA, a .397 ISO and a 159 wRC+.
Save Big by Drafting
Sam Hilliard, Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs, $2,400 — We have some really good value plays in this Coors Field game and Hilliard is one of them. He’s been making a lot of noise in the Rockies lineup as of late, averaging 11 DKFP over his last five games which includes two home runs, a double and five RBI. Tonight he’ll face Alec Mills ($5,800), who against lefties has a .364 wOBA, a 5.36 FIP and four of the seven home runs he’s allowed on the season. Hilliard has some underrated pop, as evidenced by his .268 ISO against righties.
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