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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for August 30

Steve Buchanan breaks down Monday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Monday is upon us. No one is happy about it but at least we can watch some baseball and make some money off of it. We like that.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Robbie Ray, $9,700, Toronto Blue Jays (-335) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+260) — MY MAN! ROBBIE RAY, BABY!

The future American League Cy Young Award Winner (who by the way is now 7-1 to win the award) is taking on the Orioles for the only the second time this season (how is that possible?). In that prior start, he allowed just two runs on six hits while striking out five through 4 13 innings. Not anything overly impressive BUT the way Ray has pitched over the past two months IS impressive. Since the beginning of July, Ray has made 10 starts and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in nine of those games. Through 65 2/3 innings he boasts a 10.8 K/9, a 2.53 FIP, only a 2.2 BB/9 and a minuscule 0.7 HR/9. Just beautiful numbers across the board.

Now, an avid reader of this article would say “But Steve, you always brag about how good the Orioles are against lefties, this goes against everything you say!” I would start off by saying this is true and thanks for being an avid reader. I would also say that Ray is one of the exceptions to this rule. He has turned a massive corner and has limited not only the walks but the home runs. While the Orioles still boast a ton of power against lefties in the month of August (.208 ISO) the other numbers haven’t been that great with a 95 wRC+ and a .308 wOBA. This team is TRYING to lose (losing 19 in a row is a good indication) and want that first pick. With that kind of mentality and how much Ray has been dominating opposing teams for his last 10 starts, my money is on him.

Highest Projected Total

San Diego Padres (-190; 5.5 runs) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+160; 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — As of this morning, we didn’t have a game projected to be in the double-digits, thus, the Padres and D-Backs have the highest over/under with -110 on the over. Both of these teams excel at hitting the over on the game total, with the Diamondbacks doing so in 54.7% of their games and the Padres are 52.3%, both of which are in the top 10. With that said, the Padres specifically have REALLY struggled to hit the over in the month of August, as they own a 10-12-2 record this month.

The Padres do have one of the biggest team totals on this slate at 5.5 runs going against Tyler Gilbert ($6,200), who’ll be making his fourth start and seventh overall appearance. Gilbert has done well thus far, posting a 2.38 ERA, a 3.65 FIP and a 0.40 HR/9. That said, he’s not a strikeout pitcher with only a 6.3 K/9. All throughout the minors, he was solid at inducing groundballs at a 40%+ clip but is only seeing 36.1% in the majors. The Padres have surprisingly stumbled against lefties, posting just a 99 wRC+, a .316 wOBA and a .169 ISO. Of course, Fernando Tatis Jr ($6,300) is the main target when facing a lefty with his absurd .407 wOBA, .351 ISO and 159 wRC+ against them. Aside from that, the power has been lacking with the exception of Manny Machado ($4,800) and Jake Cronenworth ($4,100). I would dare to say I’m a bit iffy on taking the over in this game.

Weather Notes

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Drew Smyly, .338, 4.61
Johnny Cueto, .338, 4.45
Nick Pivetta .320, 4.82

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Robbie Ray, .241, 2.91
Corbin Burnes, .253, 1.72
Zack Wheeler, .261, 2.71

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Quintana, .415, 5.32
Chris Paddack, .383, 3.93
Josiah Gray, .376, 6.76

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, .211, 1.57
Zack Wheeler, .253, 2.44
German Marquez, .265, 3.26

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles $9,700 — I dare say this isn’t my favorite group of pitchers to choose from on a given day. That said, Ray is going to be a chalky play tonight and I’m fine with that. I went over how well he’s pitched since the beginning of July and we haven’t seen any indications that’ll stop tonight. Pitching at “home” hasn’t always been in the same place all season long but since the move back to Rogers Centre, Ray has thrown 27 innings and produced a dazzling 1.42 FIP, a .205 wOBA and has yet to allow a home run.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Trea Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves, $5,400 — Turner has a great matchup against Drew Smyly ($7,900), who has a fair share of struggles on the road this season. Against righties on the road, Smyly has a .375 wOBA with a 5.38 FIP and a 1.95 HR/9. He’s also in the midst of one of his worth months of the season, allowing a .332 wOBA, a 5.01 FIP and a 2.37 HR/9 through the month of August. Of course, Turner has done everything against lefties with a .469 wOBA, a .285 ISO and a 195 wRC+ on the season. All the boxes are checked to use Turner as my top hitter on the slate.

Save Big by Drafting

Corey Dickerson, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles, $3,000 — It continues to be comical how cheap Dickerson is despite being a main part of this Blue Jays offense now. Entrenched in the fifth spot in the order, Dickerson has a .358 wOBA, a .231 ISO and a 126 wRC+ since joining this team back on August 3rd. In fact, of the 22 games he’s played with the Blue Jays, nine of them have been for at least 10 DKFP. That’s a steal for someone who is only $3,000.

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