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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for August 27

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

It’s Friday night so that means every single MLB team is on the schedule tonight. Tons of information to get into, so let’s stop wasting time with this intro.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Aaron Nola, $10,200, Philadelphia Phillies (-260) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+210) — On paper, a series against the Diamondbacks should be a layup, especially on the road. Coming into last night, the D-Backs were only 16-49 on the road. 16-49......The Yankees have won almost as many games in a row that the D-Backs have on the road this season. The D-Backs won their 17th game of the season on the road last night against this Phillies club, improving them to 17-49 on the road. The Phillies, meanwhile, look to improve at home where they are 36-28.

The Phillies are hoping to back Nola, who are 6-5 at Citizens Bank Park when Nola takes the mound. This will be his first time taking on the Diamondbacks this season, who on the road have combined for a .299 wOBA, a .145 ISO and an 85 wRC+. The Diamondbacks also have one of the highest K% in the league against righties at 25.1%, which currently ranks 4th. You may not want to back someone at -260 but they are -125 on the runline at -1.5.

Highest Projected Total

Boston Red Sox (-180; 5.5 runs) at Cleveland Indians (+155; 3.5 runs) 10 runs — The Red Sox head to Cleveland for a weekend series against the Indians and are involved in the highest total of the night. This game is quite lopsided both on the moneyline and the team totals, with the Sox owning one of the highest on the slate. This has not been a team that’s hit the over on the game total often, doing so in just 46.8% of their games. The Indians, meanwhile, have been one of the best at 55.8%.

I have plenty of optimism that the Red Sox will go over their team total against Logan Allen ($4,700). It’s been a lost season for the Indians starter, who has split time between the majors and Triple-A. Neither stop has gone particularly well but his time in the majors have been horrendous. When you have seven starts under your belt and are only averaging 1.6 DKFP, you know something is wrong. Allen has been lit up for 26 runs (24 earned) on 30 hits, including nine home runs, through just 22 2/3 innings. That gives him a 9.13 ERA to go with a 8.73 FIP, a 3.5 HR/9 and a 40% hard-hit rate allowed. The Indians bullpen will provide little relief when Allen is subsequently knocked out of this game, posting a 4.32 FIP over the past two weeks.

Weather Notes

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - The biggest favorite on the slate is also in danger of being rained out. The good news is, we could get an idea if this is being rained out early enough because of the timing of the storms.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles - This should play after a delay. Of course, keep an eye on this but once the rain clears out, they should be good to go.

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets - The Mets will either have major rain issues or none at all. Great analysis but I’m not a weatherman. So just check again before first pitch.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Taylor Widener .381, 6.89
Kyle Freeland, .363, 5.06
Matt Manning, .350, 5.45

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Wade Miley, .228, 2.80
Sean Manaea, .241, 3.25
Eric Lauer, .268, 3.60

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Harvey, .380, 4.59
J.A. Happ, .375, 5.64
Kris Bubic, .357, 5.81

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Gerrit Cole, .229, 2.50
Zach Thompson, .229, 3.35
Joe Musgrove, .237, 3.04

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Aaron Nola, Philadelpha Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks $10,200 — It’s rather unfortunate that the pitcher I like the most is the one with weather concerns. I’m hoping that the rain will drive some of the ownership off of Nola because otherwise, he’s likely one of the most popular plays. As mentioned above, the Diamondbacks are one of the worst road teams in the league and will provide plenty of strikeout upside, which plays well into the 10.9 K/9 that Nola sports on the season. Nola has also pitched his best baseball at home, boasting just a .273 wOBA, a 2.74 FIP and a 1.1 HR/9. While the D-Backs can be pesky against lefties, the numbers against righties are abysmal and ones you want to attack.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, $5,400 — The good Matt Harvey ($5,400) we saw for a stretch has disappeared once again. After a stellar month of July that saw him sport a .236 wOBA with a 2.31 FIP and a 0.00 HR/9 has now reverted back to the man we know and love. In August, Harvey has a .399 wOBA, a 6.91 FIP and a 2.8 HR/9. After a delay in starting this game most likely, the Rays should be able to tee off of him again, something they’ve done on two occasions. Harvey has allowed 11 runs on 12 hits, including four home runs through just 6 1/3 innings against this team. Lowe will be the first Ray bat I’ll lock into my stack with his .394 wOBA, a .306 ISO and a 157 wRC+.

Save Big by Drafting

Oscar Mercado, Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox, $2,000 — Mercado is at the bare minimum salary but has some good numbers against lefties. Batting fifth in the Indians order, you can’t find a better value them him tonight. His numbers skew heavily against lefties with a .353 wOBA, only a .125 ISO but a 122 wRC+. They don’t blow you away, but batting fifth and hitting lefties well is all you need at this price. He’s been posting some good numbers at the plate as of late, averaging 8.2 DKFP over his last five games. Small sample but anything close to that average is more than you’d need to return value.

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