Saturday features another full baseball slate, with all 30 MLB teams in action. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Under 9.0 runs (-120)
Taking the under in Mets’ games has been like printing money this season. The under has gone 65-51-5, rewarding bettors with a +9.1% return on investment. That makes them the third-most profitable under team in the league.
Things don’t figure to get any easier for the Mets’ offense on Saturday. They’re taking on Max Scherzer, who continues to produce like one of the best starters in the league. He’s pitched to a 2.69 ERA this season while striking out more than 12 batters per nine innings. He fared well against the Mets in his last outing, pitching to a 1.84 FIP over six innings.
The Dodgers’ offense should also be a little less potent than usual. They’re facing left-hander Rich Hill, and the Dodgers haven’t been quite as dominant against southpaws in 2021. They rank just 17th in wRC+ in that split, so Hill should be able to limit the damage on Saturday. Overall, I’m expecting another low-scoring affair.
Athletics ML (-110)
The Giants have been easily the biggest surprise of the season. Not only are they competitive, but they’re actually leading the toughest division in baseball. They currently own a 1 1/2 game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West standings, and while they may not be able to hold them off, they are a mortal lock to qualify for the postseason.
Unfortunately, they have finally started to show some cracks in their armor. Kevin Gausman pitched like a Cy Young candidate over the first half of the season, but he has regressed badly since the All-Star break. He’s pitched to a 5.20 ERA and 4.29 FIP, and now he’ll have to traverse a scary A’s lineup. They own the best wRC+ in the league against right-handers over the past 14 days, so this is as tough of a matchup as Gausman will face all season.
On the other side, the Giants will be facing a left-hander in Sean Manaea. Manaea is a quality pitcher, but his handedness is more important than his ability. The Giants have raked against right-handers this season, ranking first in the league in ISO and sixth in wRC+, but they have been much more mortal against left-handed pitchers.
Diamondbacks ML (+125)
No one is going to confuse either of these squads with a good baseball team, but games at Coors Field are always fun. The Rockies were able to secure a victory last night and have been good at home all season, but I like the Diamondbacks’ chances for an upset on Saturday.
The Rockies will hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, who has pitched to a 4.79 ERA at home this season. That’s not dreadful for Coors Field, but it’s certainly not good. The Diamondbacks have also been sneaky-good against left-handers recently. They have some quality right-handed hitters like Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly, and they rank 12th in wRC+ vs. southpaws over the past 14 days.
Conversely, the Rockies will be facing a right-hander in Zac Gallen, and they’ve struggled in that split all season. They rank dead-last in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, so I’m expecting Gallen to keep their offense at bay.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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