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We’ve got a four-game slate for Monday and this is when things get real. Pool play is done and it’s all about risking everything for those gold, silver and bronze biscuits. Slovenia is favored by 16 points over Germany on DraftKings Sportsbook, with an implied total of 100.75. USA is favored by 12.5 points over Spain, with an implied total of 96. France is favored over Italy, with an implied total of 88.25. Finally, Australia is favored over Argentina, with an implied total of 89.5. To HalleLuka or not? That is the question. Luka Doncic ($13,200) is the most expensive player by a whopping margin, but he may have the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite plays at each position on DraftKings.
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Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic, Slovenia vs. Germany ($13,200) – Luka is the alpha and the omega of the Slovenian squad. He literally does it all and is a threat to mess around on any given night. With this being winning time, I expect him to play a ton of minutes and garner all the usage he can handle. The floor/ceiling is unmatched on this slate but you pay for that privilege. It all comes down to roster construction and there’s merit to fading him if ownership projections get too high, especially since the point guard position is stacked. That said, I’m inclined to HalleLuka and figure out how to build around him.
Other Options – Patty Mills ($10,500), Ricky Rubio ($9,800), Facundo Campazzo ($9,200)
Value
Andreas Obst, Germany at Slovenia ($4,200) – Obst is the sniper for the Germans and can light up the scoreboard if he gets hot. He’s attempted nine, five and 12 shots from beyond the arc so far in this tournament. Unfortunately, he literally does nothing else on the court despite playing 30, 29 and 32 minutes. He has three assists and two steals in three games. I usually despise this type of player, but he’s going to play a ton of minutes and his offense will be needed in what should be a high-scoring, up-and-down game. Hopefully, he shoots the lights out and trips into a rebound or two.
Other Options – Nico Mannion ($5,600), Thomas Heurtel ($4,100)
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Shooting Guard
Stud
Evan Fournier, France at Italy ($8,300) – Fournier is the class of the shooting guard position tonight. He’s the only one who will likely play over 30 minutes and he garners a massive usage rate. He only played 14 minutes and attempted four shots last game, but that was because he wasn’t needed against Iran. In the two prior games, he played 27 and 34 minutes while attempting 13 and 22 shots.
Other Options – Klemen Prepelic ($6,300), Jaka Blazic ($6,000)
Value
Nicolas Brussino, Argentina at Australia ($3,700) – Brussino is 6-foot-7 and 195 pounds. He played in 54 games for the Dallas Mavericks back in 2016, so he has skills. In these Olympics, he’s received more playing time in each game. He started out with 15 against Slovenia then played 25 and 30 in the next two games. He has yet to attempt 10 shots in a game, but he can shoot from downtown and has contributed with some rebounds and assists. He doesn’t do much in the defensive categories, though. That said, he’s sub-$4,000 and you hope that the playing time trend continues to be a positive one.
Other Options – Stefano Tonut ($4,500)
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant, USA at Spain ($9,500) – Team USA has been judicious in allocating the playing time pie so far in these Olympics. As a result, I’ve been fading players on Team USA up to this point. It’s winning time now, though. Lose and go home with heads down and the peanut gallery yelling, “Shame! Shame! Shame!” Durant has played 21, 20 and 28 minutes, but I’d expect that number to be above 30 tonight. He’s one of the most unstoppable offensive forces on the planet and the usage rate should be high. He’s not just a scorer, though, as he grabs rebounds, dishes out assists and gets his defense on. It’s possible to fit both Luka and Durant in the same lineup tonight, and I think there’s a good chance they will be the highest scorers on the slate.
Other Options – Jayson Tatum ($7,600)
Value
Achille Polonara, Italy vs. France ($4,600) – Polonara has played 25 and 22 minutes in the last two games and attempted eight and 12 shots respectively. He grabs rebounds and will contribute some defensive stats on occasion. He’s gone for 22.75 and 23.75 DKFP. A similar output should be in the offering tonight.
Other Options – None
Power Forward
Stud
Simone Fontecchio, Italy vs. France ($7,300) – Fontecchio has been a consistent piece of the Italian team. He’s played 30, 29 and 28 minutes while attempting 13, 17 and 11 shots. He’s put up 37.5, 29 and 24 DKFP.
Other Options – None
Value
Johannes Thiemann, Germany at Slovenia ($4,100) – Thiemann has played 20, 21 and 26 minutes while attempting five, six and eight shots. He’s not an offensive force by any means and doesn’t garner a huge usage rate, but he does stretch the floor by converting from beyond the arc. He hasn’t dished out an assist yet in these Olympics, but he’s notched a steal in every game and has pulled down nine and 10 rebounds in the last two. He’s gone for 24 and 26.75 DKFP. Both the price and game environment look good for Thiemann.
Other Options – Nicolo Melli ($5,400), Achille Polonara ($4,600)
Center
Stud
Mike Tobey, Slovenia vs. Germany ($8,900) – The price is elevated and I probably won’t get here, but Tobey has been very good as Luka’s sidekick and is one of the better options at the position. He’s grabbed 14, 11 and 14 rebounds and shot eight, eight and 12 times. That’s been good for 31, 25.75 and 38.5 DKFP.
Value
Nicholas Kay, Australia vs. Argentina ($4,800) – Kay played 26 and 27 minutes in the first two games and contributed 28 and 29.25 DKFP. Then Aron Baynes was involved in an accident and lost for the Olympics. Kay then played 31 minutes and attempted 10 shots. He has range from beyond the arc, grabs rebounds, dishes out some assists and contributes a little in the defensive categories. He’s as steady as they come and the price is very palatable. I like running both Kay and Jock Landale ($4,700) out there, but both will likely be very highly rostered.
Other Options – Jock Landale ($4,700), Johannes Voigtmann ($5,900)
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